联合国-2020新冠大流行背景下的国际贸易统计和趋势报告（英文）-2021.1-35页_10mb

Summary of Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade (2020)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of international trade trends in 2020, with a particular focus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and trade tensions between the United States and China. It outlines the performance of trade in goods and services, trade indicators, and regional and sectoral variations in trade flows.

Main Points

Global Trade Trends in 2020

• The global economy faced a significant contraction in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with world GDP expected to decline by about 5% and international trade declining by about 8%.
• The most severe trade downturn occurred in the second quarter of 2020, with global merchandise trade falling by over 20% compared to the same quarter in 2019.
• Trade trends in the second half of 2020 showed some recovery, though still negative year-over-year. China was a key driver of this relative recovery, with exports growing by nearly 10% in Q3 compared to Q3 2019.
• Services trade continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace, while merchandise trade experienced the largest drops.
• Natural resources trade declined the most due to falling prices, while agricultural trade remained stable or increased.

Trade by Region

• Developed countries saw a more significant decline in trade compared to developing countries, especially in exports.
• East Asian countries were relatively more resilient, with South-South trade showing a smaller decline than global trade.
• Transition economies and West Asia and North Africa experienced the steepest drops in trade.
• Sub-Saharan Africa showed some recovery, with exports growing by 5% in Q3.

Sectoral Trade

• Energy and automotive sectors were the most affected, with energy trade declining by over 35% and automotive trade by over 20%.
• Agri-food sectors (excluding tobacco and beverages) remained stable or saw slight increases.
• Textile sectors saw a significant increase in trade, linked to demand for protective equipment due to the pandemic.
• Office machinery also saw some growth due to increased demand for home office equipment.

United States-China Trade

• The US-China trade relationship was impacted by both the pandemic and ongoing trade tensions.
• Bilateral trade between the US and China recovered in Q2 and Q3 2020, outperforming global trade growth.
• The recovery was partly statistical, as 2019 values were already low.
• Chinese exports to the US increased significantly during the pandemic, especially in personal protective equipment.
• The Phase One trade deal contributed to the increase in US exports to China in Q3 2020.

Key Trade Indicators

• Trade balances and export propensity showed variations across regions and countries.
• Commodity export dependence and food and energy net position highlighted the vulnerability of certain economies.
• Export diversification improved in some regions, particularly in East Asia, while others saw a decline.
• Export performance and competitiveness were mixed, with developed countries generally performing better than developing countries.
• Export sophistication and the export sophistication gap were also analyzed, indicating that developed countries had more sophisticated export structures.

Data Sources and Methodology

• The report uses UNCTADStat for service trade data and COMTRADE for merchandise trade data.
• Monthly trade data is sourced from the IMF Directions of Trade Statistics and national authorities.
• Data is standardized for cross-country comparisons, though some discrepancies with national statistics may exist.
• Trade is defined as goods and services, with countries categorized by geographic region using the UN classification.

Conclusion

• The 2020 trade downturn was the most severe since the global financial crisis, largely driven by the pandemic.
• China's recovery was notable, especially in the second half of 2020, contributing to a relative rebound in global trade.
• Trade trends were heterogeneous, with developed countries suffering more in terms of value and developing countries showing more resilience.
• Sectoral and regional differences were significant, with energy, automotive, and machinery sectors being the most impacted, while textiles and agri-food sectors saw growth.
• Trade tensions between the US and China continued to affect trade flows, even amid the pandemic.

Key Statistics

Summary Table

Notes

• Data is preliminary for Q3 2020.
• Intra-European Union trade is excluded from the statistics.
• UNCTADStat and COMTRADE are the primary sources for trade data.
• Global trade in goods and services is expected to recover in 2021, though the magnitude of recovery is uncertain due to ongoing disruptions and unresolved trade issues.