2025-06-16-联合国贸易发展委员-联合国贸易发展委员会-2024年国际贸易的主要统计数据和趋势（英）_59页_4mb

Summary of UNCTAD's Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2024

This report analyzes global trade trends from 2010–2024, with a focus on 2023–2024 developments amidst volatility and uncertainties. Below is a structured summary:

1. Global Trade Dynamics

• Overall Performance: Global trade value reached record highs in 2024 (~$33 trillion), dominated by goods trade (~$25 trillion), with services contributing slightly less.
• Volatility: Trade volumes became more volatile than in previous years due to geopolitical tensions, economic downturns, and policy uncertainties, reversing years of growth in 2023 before resurging in 2024.
• Growth Divergence: Emerging economies (e.g., China, India) outperformed developed nations in growth, gaining market share in global exports and imports, while developed countries saw declines in key industries.
• Globalization Trends: Deceleration of globalization post-2012 reversed some trends, with a shift toward regional blocs and risk mitigation through "nearshoring," though digitalization and supply chain diversification intensified simultaneously.
• Service Growth: Digital transformation and post-pandemic recovery boosted service trade, but it faced setbacks from COVID-19 travel restrictions.

2. Regional & Bilateral Trade Trends

• Developed vs. Developing Economies:
  • Developed countries remain major players in manufactured goods trade (e.g., EU, US, China) but grew more slowly.
  • Developing countries (especially East Asia) saw faster trade growth, with intra-regional trade expanding notably.
• South-North vs. South-South Trade:
  • South-South trade grew at 5.5% annually (faster than North-North), with China as a key driver, but was volatile in 2023.
  • North-North trade remains dominant in value due to intra-EU flows.
• Key Bilateral Flows: China-EU trade fell 9.9%, China-US trade decreased 18.7%, while EU-Russia trade collapsed 54%. Stronger growth occurred in flows tied to USMCA and China-Africa partnerships.

3. Sectoral Trade Patterns

• Manufacturing Dominance: Goods trade was primarily driven by manufacturing (57.5% of global exports). Chemicals, electricity, and transport equipment led, while textiles/apparel saw slower growth.
• Commodity Flows: Natural resources (mineral fuels) saw the steepest decline in 2023 due to geopolitics, while agricultural trade grew fastest (4.7% annualized).
• Services Sector: Digital services and travel grew robustly (8.7% and 36.4% in 2023), contrasting with transport (pre-pandemic levels).
• Trade Integration: Africa’s and Latin America’s manufacturing networks are underdeveloped. East Asia dominates global supply chains, while other regions rely more on extra-regional trade.

4. Trade Indicators & Dependencies

• Dependence & Vulnerability: Smaller economies have high trade-to-GDP ratios due to integration into value chains. African economies face dual reliance on primary exports/import, making them vulnerable.
• Diversification: Many developing economies export limited baskets of goods (often raw materials) with minimal destination diversification (e.g., reliant on top trading partners). Fewer diversified economies (e.g., East Asian countries) demonstrate resilience.
• Sophistication: Countries like China have export sophistication gaps (more advanced exports than predicted by GDP), while others lag, affecting economic resilience.

Conclusion

The report concludes that geopolitical strife, supply chain shifts, and climatic/a经贸 shocks have reshaped trade dynamics, fostering de-globalization trends while digital trade and regionalization offer new opportunities. The findings highlight varying vulnerabilities among regions and emphasize the need for evidence-based policymaking to navigate supply chain shifts and promote inclusive trade growth.