拉丁美洲经济委员会-2023年拉丁美洲和加勒比国际贸易展望-全球和区域贸易的结构变化和趋势：挑战和机遇（英）-2023-178页_3mb

Summary of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2023

Core Content

The International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2023 provides an analysis of trade trends, structural changes, and challenges in the region's trade relations with global and regional partners, with a particular focus on China. It outlines the impact of global and regional economic conditions on trade performance, highlights the role of trade facilitation in improving efficiency and sustainability, and presents key data and projections for 2023.

Main Points

A. Structural and Cyclical Factors Weakening Trade

• Global Goods Trade Contraction: Global trade in goods declined by 1.6% year-on-year in January–July 2023, following a 2.7% growth in 2022. The full-year growth is projected at 0.8%, reflecting a slowdown in global economic activity.
• Monetary Policies and Geopolitical Tensions: The contraction in global trade is influenced by contractionary monetary policies in the U.S. and Europe, the real estate crisis in China, and increasing geopolitical influence on trade.
• Regional Trade Performance: Trade in goods and services in Latin America and the Caribbean slowed significantly in the first half of 2023. Exports grew by 0.6% and imports dropped by 3.2%. Goods exports declined in volume (-1.7%) and price (-4.5%), while service exports and imports grew by 17.0% and 4.1%, respectively.
• Commodity Price Fluctuations: The value of goods exports fell by 2.4% in January–August 2023 due to a 3.5% decline in prices. Mining and oil exports dropped by 10.3% and 4.8%, respectively, while manufacturing exports increased by 1.6%.
• Services Sector Growth: Service exports showed steady growth, especially in modern services (up 13.0%) and travel services (up 25.6%), driven by the recovery of tourism. Transport services grew at a slower rate (8.3%).

B. Trade Relationship with China (2000–2022)

• Bilateral Trade Growth: Bilateral trade between Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and China expanded by a factor of 35 between 2000 and 2022, making China the region's second-largest trading partner and the largest for South America.
• Export Composition: Almost all exports to China are raw materials and natural-resource-based manufactures, while imports from China are primarily low-, medium- and high-tech manufactured goods.
• Impact on Regional Production: The increasing penetration of Chinese manufactured goods has provided access to a wide range of final and intermediate goods but has also displaced regional production in various segments.
• Opportunities for Diversification: The main short-term opportunity for value addition lies in the food sector, as well as in improving the technological intensity and competitiveness of exports.
• Tariff and Non-Tariff Measures: China applies relatively low most-favoured-nation (MFN) tariffs on imports from LAC, but non-tariff measures (NTMs) remain a significant barrier.

C. Trade Facilitation in the Region

• Progress in Trade Facilitation: Significant progress has been made in implementing the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, but the Caribbean subregion lags behind the rest of the region.
• Infrastructure Deficiencies: The region suffers from serious deficiencies in transportation and logistics infrastructure, primarily due to insufficient public investment.
• Paperless Trade: Paperless trade remains underdeveloped, with much room for improvement in the region.
• Multimodal Transport: The region's transport systems are historically dominated by road transport, and there is a need to develop multimodal freight transport.
• Green Infrastructure: Innovative financing options, including green infrastructure, are necessary to address the fiscal constraints of the region's countries.
• Digital and Sustainable Trade Facilitation: The United Nations Global Survey on Digital and Sustainable Trade Facilitation highlights the need for digitalization and sustainability in trade processes.

Key Information

• Challenges:

  • Commodity price volatility continues to affect the region's export performance.
  • The slowdown in global trade is expected to persist, especially in goods.
  • The region's trade facilitation systems need improvement, particularly in the Caribbean.
  • Infrastructure investment remains limited, affecting trade efficiency and sustainability.

• Opportunities:

  • Growth in services exports, especially modern services and tourism-related trade.
  • Diversification of exports to China, particularly in the food and technology sectors.
  • Development of paperless and digital trade systems to enhance efficiency.
  • Investment in green and sustainable infrastructure to support long-term trade goals.

• Projections for 2023:

  • Global goods trade is expected to grow slightly in 2023.
  • Regional goods exports will decline in value, but volumes may increase.
  • Service exports are projected to grow, though at a slower rate than 2022.
  • Trade with China is expected to continue, with a focus on diversification and value addition.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of structural reforms and innovation in trade facilitation for the region to adapt to the evolving global trade environment. It emphasizes the need for diversification in exports, especially towards China, and highlights the potential of digital and sustainable trade practices to enhance regional competitiveness and efficiency.