世界银行-从内陆到机遇之地：巴拉圭国家经济备忘录（英）-2024-119页_7mb

总结：Paraguay Country Economic Memorandum

核心内容

Paraguay has maintained macroeconomic stability and achieved significant growth since the early 2000s, but its growth model is facing challenges that may hinder further progress. The economy has grown at an average rate of 3.6% per year between 2002 and 2022, outperforming the region and other upper-middle-income countries (UMICs). However, recent years have seen a slowdown in growth and poverty reduction, with real per capita income growth decreasing from 3.3% (2002-2013) to 1.9% (2013-2019), and further declines in 2020-2022 due to droughts and inflation. Poverty reduction has stalled, with the poverty rate at 19.9% in 2022.

The current growth model is heavily reliant on the export of unprocessed commodities, such as soybeans, beef, and electricity, which constitute 81% of direct exports. This model has driven economic growth but is vulnerable to external shocks and faces long-term sustainability challenges due to environmental degradation and the depletion of natural resources.

主要观点

• 经济增长放缓：Paraguay's average growth has slowed since 2013, and poverty reduction has stalled, indicating the need for structural reforms.
• 经济结构单一：The economy remains highly concentrated in a few primary products, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand and environmental factors.
• 非正式经济问题：Informal employment is widespread, particularly in the services sector, and contributes to lower productivity and job quality.
• 公共服务不足：Public spending on education and health is low and inefficient, limiting human capital development and inclusive growth.
• 环境可持续性挑战：The conversion of native forests to agricultural land has led to significant deforestation, risking future competitiveness and sustainability.
• 绿色贸易政策影响：New EU regulations, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and deforestation-free product policies, could impact Paraguay's exports, especially soy, unless the country adopts more sustainable practices.
• FDI和数字发展滞后：FDI inflows remain below regional averages, and digital infrastructure and skills are underdeveloped, affecting competitiveness.
• 农业发展与挑战：Agriculture productivity has increased due to technology adoption, but public investment is limited, and efficiency is low. There is a need for better support and management of the sector to ensure long-term sustainability.

关键信息

经济表现

• GDP增长：2002-2022年平均增长率为3.6%，高于拉美和加勒比地区（LAC）的平均水平。
• 贫困率：2022年底贫困率为19.9%，低于LAC平均水平，但自2013年后减贫速度放缓。
• 不平等：基尼系数从57.3降至45.3，但仍高于区域和收入水平的同级国家。

主要行业

• 农业和畜牧业：是经济增长的主要驱动力，占直接出口的81%，但依赖于少数产品（大豆、牛肉）。
• 服务业：虽然占总就业的比重较高，但附加值较低，且大部分为非正式就业。
• 能源出口：水电出口是重要收入来源，但受制于自然条件和国际市场需求。

公共政策与机构

• 税收负担：Paraguay的税负相对较低，但FDI流入仍低于区域平均水平。
• 公共支出：教育和卫生支出占GDP的比例较低，且效率不足，影响社会经济发展。
• 机构能力：需要加强公共机构的能力，以提高政策执行效率和经济管理质量。

环境与可持续发展

• 森林砍伐：过去二十年，Paraguay的森林覆盖率下降了近三分之一，对农业和环境构成长期风险。
• 绿色贸易政策：CBAM和欧盟的森林保护法规可能影响Paraguay的出口，特别是大豆，除非其采用可持续生产方式。

数字化与创新

• 数字支付和技能：数字支付使用率较低，数字技能不足，限制了服务业的竞争力和增长潜力。
• 数字服务贸易：贸易开放度较低，需加强以提升竞争力。

旅游业

• 旅游业贡献小：旅游业对GDP的贡献率较低，且在过去二十年未显著增长。
• 旅游支出低：人均旅游支出和总旅游支出均低于区域平均水平。

政策建议

• 提升市场效率：通过竞争政策改革，提高企业生产力和公平性。
• 促进服务业发展：加强数字服务和创新，推动服务业成为增长新引擎。
• 加强农业支持：提高农业预算执行效率，增加对技术和可持续发展的投资。
• 改善数字基础设施：降低宽带价格，提高数字技能，促进数字服务贸易。
• 推动旅游业发展：增加旅游投入，提升服务质量，拓展国际市场。
• 增强经济韧性：通过多元化出口、加强金融体系和风险应对机制，提高经济稳定性。
• 促进正式就业：改善正式就业机会，提升工资水平和工作条件，缩小正式与非正式就业差距。

未来挑战

• 经济增长放缓：需要调整增长模式，减少对自然资源的依赖，推动多元化。
• 社会不平等：提高教育和健康投入，缩小城乡和群体间差距。
• 环境可持续性：需采取措施保护森林和生态系统，确保农业长期竞争力。
• 政策执行效率：提高政府支出效率，增强公众对政府的信任。