世界银行-科摩罗联盟国家经济备忘录：促进增长创造更大机遇（英）-2023.9-79页_8mb

Summary of The Union of Comoros Country Economic Memorandum: Boosting Growth for Greater Opportunities

Context and Challenges

Comoros has experienced stagnant economic growth over the past decades with a GDP per capita growth of around 2.6% annually since 1980. Key challenges include:

• High poverty incidence (~40% in 2022)
• Low human capital and productivity
• Poor infrastructure, especially connectivity
• Ineffective institutions and weak governance
• Heavy dependence on remittances without significant investment

Vision

To become an upper-middle-income country by 2050 through inclusive growth.

Findings

1. Economic Model: Growth driven primarily by private consumption, financed by remittances. Investment levels are too low, limiting productivity gains.
2. Productivity Issues: Hindered by weak reallocation of labor, low human capital, and within-sector inefficiencies.
3. Structural Deficits: Need for reforms in education, health, infrastructure, and institutional frameworks.

Key Recommendations

The authorities should implement reforms across three priority pathways:

1. Unlocking Private Sector Investment

   • Strengthen financial intermediation (credit registry, reduce non-performing loans, guarantee institutions) to attract FDI.
   • Support tourism and fisheries sectors through strategic public investment.

2. Strengthening Foundational Institutions

   • Enhance public financial management (PFM) to generate fiscal space and improve expenditure efficiency.
   • Mainstream climate change and environmental sustainability into sector policies.

3. Enhancing Economic Resilience

   • Invest in tourism infrastructure, skilled lodging, digitalization, and basic services.
   • Address governance weaknesses in the tourism and fisheries sectors.

Policy Actions

• Increase education and health spending to boost human capital
• Strengthen institutional capacity and accountability mechanisms
• Develop tourism niches (diving, wellness) and green tourism products
• Modernize fisheries management and processing infrastructure
• Leverage AfCFTA and WTO accession to expand exports

The report offers detailed policy options broadly aligned with three stimulus packages to accelerate long-term growth through productivity gains and private investment.