世界银行-不丹国家经济备忘录，2024年9月：最大限度地发挥不丹经济多样化和结构转型的潜力（英）-2024-130页_5mb

Bhutan Country Economic Memorandum Summary

Core Content

This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) by the World Bank outlines strategies to enhance Bhutan's economic diversification and structural transformation. It emphasizes the need for sustainable growth beyond the hydroelectric power sector, which has historically driven Bhutan's economy. The report also addresses challenges in the agricultural sector and the financial system, offering policy recommendations to support long-term development.

Main Points

1. Economic Diversification and Hydropower Revenue Management

• Hydropower as a Growth Engine: Hydropower has been the main driver of Bhutan's economic growth, contributing over a third of goods exports and 16% of GDP in 2021. Installed capacity has grown significantly since 1987, reaching 2,326 MW.
• Dutch Disease Concerns: The hydro sector's dominance has led to symptoms of the Dutch Disease, including reduced competitiveness in non-hydro sectors and increased reliance on India for trade and investment.
• Need for Diversification: To ensure sustainable development, Bhutan must diversify its economy by investing in non-hydro sectors and managing hydro revenues effectively.
• Policy Priorities:
  • Continue hydropower development to secure future revenues.
  • Develop policies that foster new comparative advantages in non-hydro sectors.
  • Establish an institutional framework to channel hydro revenues into productivity-enhancing investments.

2. Structural Transformation Through Agricultural Productivity

• Agriculture as the Main Employer: Agriculture remains the largest employer, especially in rural areas, but its contribution to GDP is relatively low.
• Productivity Gaps: Agricultural productivity is below its potential and lags behind other sectors and peer countries. This has led to reduced labor movement into non-agricultural sectors.
• Climate Change Impacts: Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and precipitation variability, which could both improve and disrupt agricultural output. Rainfed crops may see temporary yield increases, while irrigated agriculture could benefit systematically.
• Productivity as a Catalyst: Improving agricultural productivity can lead to labor reallocation, higher wages, and spillover effects into the service sector.
• Policy Priorities:
  • Strategic infrastructure investments to support agricultural transformation.
  • Policy reforms to enhance the business environment.
  • Targeted support for farmers, including access to irrigation and credit.

3. Financial Sector Development

• Concentration and Credit Allocation: The financial sector is dominated by state-owned institutions, with limited private participation. Credit allocation is skewed towards certain sectors, with challenges in reaching small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
• Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): NPLs have remained a concern, with significant gaps in credit growth and sectoral distribution.
• Financial Stability and Governance: Strengthening financial stability, governance, and access to finance is critical for supporting economic growth and diversification.
• Climate Finance: Enhancing climate finance mechanisms is essential to support sustainable development and mitigate climate risks.
• Policy Priorities:
  • Improve financial stability and governance of financial institutions (FIs).
  • Deepen financial intermediation to support broader economic participation.
  • Bolster climate finance to address environmental challenges.

Key Information

• GDP Growth: Bhutan's real GDP growth averaged 7% from 2001 to 2019, with hydroelectric power being a major contributor.
• Poverty Reduction: Extreme poverty was eliminated by 2022, and the population living below the upper-middle-income poverty line decreased from 39.5% to 8.5% between 2017 and 2022.
• GNH and Sustainability: Bhutan's pursuit of Gross National Happiness (GNH) has guided its development towards sustainability and well-being.
• Environmental Leadership: Bhutan has over 70% forest cover and is one of the few countries with a negative carbon footprint.
• Human Development: Bhutan has achieved nearly universal primary education, increased literacy rates, and universal access to electricity and piped water.
• Structural Challenges: Despite progress, structural transformation remains slow, with limited job opportunities, especially for the youth and educated workforce.

Conclusion

The report highlights the need for Bhutan to move beyond its reliance on hydropower and enhance productivity in the agricultural sector to drive structural transformation. It calls for institutional reforms, targeted support for farmers, and improved financial systems to ensure inclusive and sustainable economic growth.