2023-07-25-世界银行-巴布亚新几内亚国家经济备忘录_实现更快_更具包容性增长的途径_127页_8mb

Papua New Guinea: Country Economic Memorandum Summary

Introduction

• Economic growth in PNG has been volatile over the long term, with high volatility in recent years.
• The average annual growth rate is low, and per capita income is not converging with peers.
• Governance and institutions are critical for explaining growth outcomes, shaped by weak intertemporal commitments and clientelism.

Seeking Stability

• Reducing macroeconomic volatility and safeguarding debt stability requires:
  • Fiscal consolidation with a focus on domestic revenue mobilization (including extractive sectors).
  • Greater exchange rate flexibility and operationalizing a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) to smooth fiscal cycles.
  • Addressing revenue shortfalls through improved tax collection and reducing inefficiencies in spending.

Boosting Productivity

• Key constraints include a weak business environment, limited competition, inefficiencies in public sector delivery, and workforce constraints (especially for women).
• Opportunities involve enhancing the business environment, improving governance, facilitating competition, and expanding access to reliable infrastructure.

Expanding Endowment

• Human capital is underutilized, with low educational attainment, high rates of stunting, and gaps in early childhood development.
• Improving health outcomes, expanding education access, addressing employment barriers for women, and investing in human capital are crucial for inclusive growth.

Governance Lens

• Political economy dynamics (clientelism and weak commitment) hinder reforms.
• Key recommendations focus on implementing changes with targeted approaches, building coalitions, enhancing data availability, and strengthening oversight mechanisms.