2024-09-23-世界银行-不丹国家经济备忘录_2024年9月_最大限度地发挥不丹经济多样化和结构转型的潜力（英）_130页_8mb

Bhutan Country Economic Memorandum Summary

Executive Summary Overview

• Bhutan's economy is heavily dependent on hydropower, contributing ~16% of GDP, but this reliance creates limited economic diversification and productivity gains.
• Structural transformation is slow due to limited private sector development, low agricultural productivity, and high unemployment among educated youth.
• The Dutch Disease phenomenon exacerbates trade deficits and prices discourages exports.

Hydropower Revenue Management

• Challenges: Over-reliance on hydropower hinders diversification; Dutch Disease-type effects constrain non-hydro growth.
• Opportunities: Resource rents can be reinvested in physical/human capital to accelerate diversification.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Consolidate development institutions to concentrate resources.
  • Establish a public Investment Evaluation Unit (IEU) for efficient project appraisal.

Economic Diversification and Structural Transformation

• Agriculture: Potential productivity gains through irrigation and climate-resilient practices can reduce reliance on low-productivity crops.
• Private Sector: Strengthen SME support, attract FDI, and implement targeted SEZ policies to boost exports.
• Geographic Variation: Urban/trade areas drive faster transformation; rural areas require complementary labor reallocation policies.

Financial Sector Reforms

• Key Issues: Concentrated banking, low credit access for SMEs, rising NPLs, and inadequate climate finance integration.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Strengthen credit underwriting, develop a risk-based pricing framework.
  • Enhance climate-related disclosure requirements and establish a National Sustainable Finance Committee.
  • Leverage blended finance instruments to mobilize private capital for green investments.

Key Conclusions

• Achieving broad-based growth requires balancing resource revenue management and economic diversification.
• Strengthening institutional capacity and sector-specific reforms are crucial for sustainable development.