2021-09-16-荷兰国际关系研究所-土耳其对其邻国的干预（英）_11页_2mb

Analysis of Operation Spring Shield in Idlib

Operation Spring Shield in northern Idlib in February 2020 was mainly triggered by Turkey's desire to prevent a Syrian regime offensive from spilling over into its territory, particularly concerning extremists and refugees, and to stop further regime advances after territorial gains. The operation was also driven by Ankara's intent to protect its buffer zone against the Kurdish YPG and align HTS (Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham) with its regional interests while drawing a line against Syrian President Assad.

Turkey's intervention involved a major military surge, deploying thousands of troops, including infantry, artillery, drones, and Islam Karadzic air defense systems. Approximately 10,000 Syrian National Army (SNA) fighters aided Turkish forces, creating significant military superiority in the region.

Operation Spring Shield proved tactically successful by halting regime forces after intense fighting in late February and March 2020. Russia's decision to stand aside during the operation allowed Turkey to consolidate gains. Strategically, the operation solidified Turkey's position in Idlib, established a new equilibrium in the region, and prevented bloodshed, countering concerns from NATO, the EU, and the US.

Short-term impacts include stabilizing Idlib by preventing direct regime control and clarifying Turkey's red lines to Damascus, Tehran, and Moscow. The region also benefited from increased humanitarian aid, though Turkey's intervention was not primarily driven by humanitarian relief. The operation did not negatively impact Turkey's relations with international partners, as they largely supported its actions.

Medium-term outcomes are uncertain. If Turkey remains in Idlib permanently, invests economically, and encourages moderation in HTS, the region could experience long-term stability. However, if Turkey withdraws or moderate measures fail, the area could face renewed conflict, return to refugee crises, or extend the 'frozen conflict' in Syria.

Turkey's strategic interests in Syria also involve securing a role in the future governance of the region to balance Russian and Iranian influence. In conclusion, Operation Spring Shield achieved a short-term stabilization, but its medium-term stability hinges on sustained Turkish presence, investment, and the role of HTS in governance. The impact of the operation ultimately depends on these factors, as well as the broader geopolitical situation in Syria.