荷兰国际关系研究所-2021年战略监测（英文）-2021.3-167页_4mb

Summary of "Geopolitical Genesis: Dutch Foreign and Security Policy in a Post-COVID World"

Core Content

This report, published by the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the Clingendael Institute in March 2021, analyzes the transformation of the international system and its implications for Dutch and European foreign and security policy in the post-COVID era. It outlines key challenges, major actors, and strategic recommendations for the Netherlands and the European Union over the next decade.

Main Viewpoints

• The international system is evolving rapidly, with the US-Dutch and US-European relationship undergoing permanent change due to the Trump administration's impact.
• Joe Biden's election is seen as a potential inflection point, offering an opportunity for Europe to enhance its global standing and rebalance its relationship with the US.
• The multilateral system is changing in nature, no longer dominated by the West. It is fragmenting, with new forms of multilateralism emerging, often ad hoc and less institutionalized.
• Competition among global powers (US, China, EU) is intensifying, and gray zone operations are becoming a dominant feature of international competition.
• Climate change is a catalyst for multilateral action, but current efforts are insufficient and require more aggressive policies.
• Non-state actors (NSAs) are playing increasingly important roles, both in promoting cooperation and posing risks through self-interested agendas.

Key Information

1. Challenges for the Netherlands and the EU

1. Multilateralism is changing: The system is no longer as strong as before, and while it may not collapse, it is fragmented and less predictable.
2. Global power dynamics: The US, China, and the EU are the main global actors, with Russia as a major regional power.
3. Middle powers are becoming more assertive: Especially in the Global South, they are pursuing innovation mercantilism and non-UN sanctioned military interventions.
4. Non-state actors are gaining influence: They are taking on roles traditionally held by states, particularly in climate change and international development.
5. Gray zone operations: These are non-military tactics that challenge international stability, and democratic states are more vulnerable to them.
6. Climate change is a security issue: It is increasingly impacting Dutch and European security, requiring more robust multilateral responses.

2. Strategic Recommendations

1. Rebalance the US relationship: The EU should act as an independent geopolitical actor in its relationship with the US, not as a junior partner. This includes shifting focus from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific.
2. Promote European unity: The Netherlands and the EU should strengthen collective action to enhance conventional deterrence and resilience against Russian and Chinese influence.
3. Engage strategically with middle powers: The EU should collaborate with democratic middle powers to build multilateral coalitions, while influencing Global South middle powers to avoid mercantilist and destabilizing policies.
4. Work with non-state actors: The EU should engage NSAs constructively, while also monitoring and countering harmful ones like QAnon.
5. Address climate and security: The EU must strengthen norms and rules for climate security, increase resilience, and encourage global cooperation, including with China and the US.
6. Foster a rules-based order: The Netherlands and the EU should preserve the core principles of the international system, while adapting to new realities.
7. Develop a more assertive geopolitical stance: The EU needs to take on more responsibility for its own security and stability, which will empower its global role.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that the post-COVID world is characterized by multipolarity, with the EU emerging as a key global actor. The Netherlands must play an active role in shaping this new order. By rebalancing its relationship with the US, strengthening European unity, and strategically engaging with middle and non-state actors, the Netherlands can secure its interests and values in an increasingly complex and competitive international system.

The strategic rebalancing is not about alienating the US, but about updating the transatlantic relationship and enhancing the EU's autonomy and influence. This is essential for addressing the multifaceted challenges of the coming decade and ensuring a stable and secure future for the Netherlands and Europe.