2001年-世界发展银行全球_Zambia_-_Public_Expenditure_Review___Public_Expenditure_Growth_and_Poverty_-_A_Synthesis_169页_9mb

报告摘要

Public Expenditure Review of Zambia (December 2001)

Core Content

This report, titled Public Expenditure, Growth and Poverty: A Synthesis, is a joint effort between the Government of Zambia and the World Bank. It evaluates the effectiveness of public expenditure in relation to economic growth and poverty reduction, focusing on three main areas: macroeconomic discipline, strategic priority setting, and efficient public service delivery.

Main Findings and Recommendations

1. Stabilization Problem

Public Sector Deficit: Zambia's overall public sector deficit (quasi-fiscal deficit) is high, threatening macroeconomic stability and growth. It includes deficits from the central government, local governments, extra-budgetary accounts, state-owned enterprises, and the Central Bank.
ZCCM Losses: The losses from Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines Limited (ZCCM), a major state-owned enterprise, significantly contributed to the deficit. Before privatization, ZCCM's losses were more than a third of total public spending.
Impact on Poverty Reduction: The quasi-fiscal deficit overshadows public spending for the poor. The sale of ZCCM in 2000 was a key step in reducing the deficit, but further reforms are necessary.
Growth and Poverty Link: The poorest quintile in Zambia benefits almost one-to-one from general economic growth, indicating a strong link between growth and poverty reduction.

2. Allocation Problem

Misallocation of Resources: Public resources are not being allocated effectively across and within sectors to meet growth and poverty reduction goals.
Infrastructure Decline: Infrastructure investments have declined in the 1990s due to lack of long-term commitment and resource shortfalls. The impact on infrastructure is more severe than on service sectors or non-economic institutions.
Social Expenditures: Social expenditures, particularly in health and education, have limited impact on the poor. They are often not reaching the intended beneficiaries.
Key Issues:
- School enrollment and teacher retention are declining.
- Health outcomes are deteriorating, partly due to HIV/AIDS.
- Procurement processes in health and education are not transparent, leading to wastage.
- There is duplication of functions between the Ministry of Health and the Central Board of Health.

3. Execution Problem

Ineffective Budget Management: The lack of an effective budgetary framework and management has hindered the government's ability to achieve growth and poverty reduction goals.
Cash Budget Biases: The cash budget system, while helpful in controlling inflation, has introduced systematic biases in resource allocation and delivery.
Expenditure Volatility: Monthly expenditure volatility is high, and the cash rationing system has affected the delivery of public services in health and education.
Sector Investment Programs: Zambia has several sector investment programs (e.g., ASIP, BESSIP, SIP) aimed at coordinating efforts and improving service delivery, but their implementation is hindered by:
- Weak government capacity in fiscal controls, financial management, and procurement.
- Lack of transparency and wastage in the procurement of essential goods like drugs, pharmaceuticals, and fertilizers.

Key Recommendations

Reduce Public Sector Deficit: Free up resources by reducing the deficit, especially from parastatals, to enhance efficiency in growth and poverty reduction.
Improve Budget Execution: Replace the cash rationing system with effective fiscal management and budgetary institutions to improve the delivery of public services.
Restore Rural Spending: Focus on rural infrastructure and services to improve income opportunities for the rural poor.
Align Budget with PRSP: Ensure that medium-term budget allocations, including HIPC expenditures, are aligned with the government's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) in consultation with civil society.

Summary of Key Tables and Figures

Table 1.1: Zambia's debt service and external flows from 1990 to 2000.
Table 1.2: Real GDP and sectoral value-added from 1995 to 2000.
Table 1.3: Revenue and expenditure trends from 1995 to 2000.
Table 1.4: Potential effect of inflation reduction on economic growth.
Table 1.5: Medium-term macroeconomic framework for Zambia.
Table 2.1: National incidence of poverty by rural/urban classification and province.
Table 2.2: Percentage of households receiving and sending remittances.
Table 2.3: Incidence of extreme poverty by rural/urban classification.
Table 2.4: Incidence of moderate poverty by rural/urban classification.
Table 3.1: Share of social expenditures in Zambia from 1996 to 1999.
Table 3.2: Ratio of actual to initial budget allocations for public expenditure from 1995 to 1999.
Table 4.1: Action plan for public expenditure management reform.
Table 6.1: School enrollment of children aged 7-13 in 1998 by quintile.
Table 6.2: Government expenditure on education.
Table 8.1: Access to water and sanitation services by wealth decile.
Table 9.1: Agriculture budget allocation and actual expenditures.
Table 9.2: Historical and projected intra-sectoral shares of expenditures.
Table 9.3: Agriculture expenditure distribution.
Table 10.1: Rural electrification releases and ZESCO remittances.
Table 10.2: Fuel levy collections and arrears to the Road Fund.
Table 10.3: Funding structure to the Roads Department.
Table 10.4: Public spending on transport by type.
Table A1.1: Central government budget from 1990 to 2000.
Table A1.2: Central government budget as a percentage of GDP.
Table A1.3: Structure of the central government budget.
Table A1.4: Allocated and actual public expenditures for key sectors.
Table A1.5: Selected macroeconomic indicators from 1990 to 2000.
Table A2.1: Schematic view of the 123 PRSP model.
Table A2.2: Growth elasticities in the first two years.
Table A2.3: Impact of government expenditures and copper price shocks.
Table A2.4: Growth coefficients of the Get Real Model.
Table A2.5: Impact of HIV/AIDS on GDP growth.
Table A2.6: Alternative long-term growth scenarios.

Key Figures

Figure 1.1: Copper price and per capita income in Zambia.
Figure 1.2: Per capita revenue and expenditure in 1994 constant prices.
Figure 1.3: Deficit and inflation trends.
Figure 1.4: Zambia's overall public sector deficit.
Figure 1.5: Relationship between state-owned enterprises and income.
Figure 1.6: Mean income and poverty rates by province in 1998.
Figure 1.7: Expenditure in the poorest quintile and mean expenditure by province in 1993, 1996, and 1998.
Figure 2.1: CDF of household per adult income.
Figure 2.2: Population by consumption quintile and place of residence.
Figure 2.3: Education attainment of 15-19 year olds by wealth category.
Figure 2.4: Child mortality by wealth decile in 1997.
Figure 2.5: Overall enrollment rate in primary and secondary schooling by quintile and location.
Figure 2.6: Percentage of students aged 7-13 by quintile and location.
Figure 2.7: Cost per student by provincial per capita consumption.
Figure 2.8: Distances to primary schools by quintile in rural and urban areas.
Figure 2.9: Percentage of clients of facilities by consumption group.
Figure 2.10: Use of each type of facility by consumption quintile.
Figure 2.11: Proportion of visitors under 5 to public health clinics.
Figure 2.12: Percentage users of public primary facilities.
Figure 3.1: Composition of audited expenditure from 1991 to 2000.
Figure 3.2: Share of committed donor projects in public expenditure.
Figure 6.1: Student flow profile in Grade 1-7 education in 1998.
Figure 6.2: Profile of schooling from Grade 1 to Grade 12 in 1998.
Figure 7.1: Real expenditure in the Ministry of Health in 1994.
Figure 7.2: Child mortality by wealth decile in 1997.
Figure 7.3: Immunization rates by income quintile.
Figure 8.1: Access to piped water by wealth decile in 1993 and 1997.
Figure 8.2: Hypothetical private and social demand for water.
Figure 9.1: Source of all maize sold.
Figure 10.1: Electricity consumption by sector in 1986 and 1999.
Figure 10.2: Final energy consumption.
Map 1: Poverty by district in Zambia in 1988.
Map 2: Zambia's main infrastructure.

Key Boxes

Box 1.1: The efficacy of public expenditure and foreign aid.
Box 3.1: Public expenditure supported by HIPC interim debt relief.
Box 4.1: Initial survey findings on public service delivery in education and health.
Box 4.2: Tracking of HIPC expenditures and trade-offs.
Box 4.3: Sectoral programs and donor coordination.
Box 4.4: Donor coordination issues.
Box 6.1: Basic Education Sub-Sector Investment Program.
Box 7.1: Health Sector Investment Program.
Box 9.1: Agriculture Sector Investment Program.
Box 10.1: Road Sector Investment Program.
Box 4.1: Initial survey findings on public service delivery in education and health.
Box 4.2: Tracking of HIPC expenditures and trade-offs.
Box 4.3: Sectoral programs and donor coordination.
Box 4.4: Donor coordination issues.

Key Participants

Government Participants

Supervision: Boniface Nonde, Likolo Ndalamei, James Mulungushi
Macro Chapter: P. Mulenga, P. Malambo, M. Sinkala, Stella N. Mutale, Boss Msimuko, Chiluwe, Steve Mbewe
Poverty: L.Kaemba, John Mwansa, S.Sichone, Jane Haboongo, John Banda, Pamela K. Bwalya, Conrad Himwiinga, Elfridah Chuulu
Composition of PE: Not explicitly listed in the document
Budget Management: Martin Phillips, Rao, Getrude C Ngoma, Clifford Banda, Ledson Zulu, T. K. Phiri, P. Chanda, K. Mpembamoto, Shirley Zulu
Education: Emmanuel Silanda, Fred Makondo, S.S. Banda, James Mbewe
Health: Davies Chimfwembe, Bonah Chita, Mike Goma, Nicholas Chikwenya
Agriculture: Julius Shawa, Martin Liywali
Infrastructure: Rogers Kapila, Bupe Kaonga, L H. L. Chandi, A.J.K. Muzilika
Participatory Aspects: Jim Edgerton

World Bank Contributors

Supervision: Delfin S. Go, Jeffrey S. Hammer, Mushiba Nyamazana, Bruce Jones
Macro Chapter: Delfin S. Go, Andrew Dabalen, Leonid Koryukin, Rene Bonnel
Poverty: Jeffrey S. Hammer, Deon Filmer, Mushiba Nyamazana, John Ngwafon
Budget Management: Bernard Myers, Hinh Dinh, Harry Garnett
Education: Bruce Jones, Keiichi Ogawa
Health: Shiyan Chao, Albertus Voetberg
Water: Fook Chuan Eng, N. Jane Walker
Agriculture: Tekola Dejene
Infrastructure: Stephen Brushett, Musaiba Nyamazana
Participatory Aspects: Jim Edgerton

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive public expenditure reforms to address the stabilization, allocation, and execution challenges. It calls for a more transparent, efficient, and accountable system of public expenditure management, with a focus on improving the delivery of services to the poor and aligning budget allocations with the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP).

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