2004年-世界发展银行全球_Kyrgyz_Republic_-_Public_Expenditure_Review___Fiscal_Policies_for_Growth_and_Poverty_Reduction_Volume_1_Main_Report_150页_12mb

Kyrgyz Republic Public Expenditure Review Summary

Core Content

This report, titled Fiscal Policies for Growth and Poverty Reduction, is a Public Expenditure Review (PER) for the Kyrgyz Republic, focusing on fiscal adjustment and public expenditure reform. It was prepared in 2004 and includes two volumes, with this summary based on Volume I: Main Report. The review is part of a broader effort to align fiscal policies with poverty reduction goals and to ensure economic sustainability.

Main Report Structure

The report is divided into two main parts:

• Part I: Strategic Context
• Part II: Challenges

It also includes annexes, an index of tables, figures, and boxes, and covers various aspects of fiscal policy, public spending, and institutional challenges.

Main Report Summary

1. Strategic Context

• The Kyrgyz Republic, like other former Soviet Union (FSU) countries, faced severe economic shocks during early independence, including loss of traditional markets and substantial subsidies.
• GDP fell by over 50% in the first five years of transition, but the economy has since shown steady recovery with real GDP growth averaging over 5% annually from 1996 to 2001.
• Despite this recovery, the Kyrgyz Republic remains one of the poorest countries in the world, with per capita income around US$300 in 2001 and absolute poverty affecting about half the population.
• High consumption volatility and poor access to public services (e.g., water, electricity, healthcare) contribute to persistent poverty.

2. Fiscal Policy in the 1990s

• The Kyrgyz Republic initiated a wide range of reforms to transition to a market economy, including price and trade liberalization, privatization of state assets, and phasing out directed credits.
• The government made significant investments in infrastructure to complement market reforms, which kept public expenditures relatively high compared to revenues.
• Fiscal deficits remained high, averaging around 9% of GDP in 1996–97, and were further exacerbated by the 1998 regional financial crisis.

3. Quasi-Fiscal Deficits

• Quasi-fiscal deficits, particularly in the power sector, have been a major issue. These deficits are due to underpricing of public services, leading to losses and inefficiencies.
• Quasi-fiscal deficits in the power sector amounted to around 10% of GDP in 2001, and similar issues exist in other sectors like district heating, gas, transport, and irrigation.
• These untargeted and inefficient expenditures contradict the principles of the National Strategy for Poverty Reduction (NSPR).

4. Medium Term Fiscal Framework

• The report outlines a medium-term fiscal framework with the goal of reducing the fiscal deficit to sustainable levels.
• A fiscal deficit of around 3% of GDP over the next four years is recommended, assuming continued concessional debt reduction and a 3% per capita growth rate.
• This requires increasing tax and non-tax collection and eliminating quasi-fiscal expenditures.

5. Challenges in Public Spending

• The report identifies several challenges in public spending, including the need to align sectoral policies with the NSPR.
• It emphasizes the importance of improving the efficiency and targeting of public expenditures, particularly in health, education, and social protection.
• The current composition of expenditure is not aligned with strategic priorities, and reforms are needed to address this.

6. Institutional Constraints

• Weak institutions and high levels of corruption have hindered the effectiveness of public service delivery and fiscal management.
• The government's administrative capacity is limited, and donor support has been fragmented, leading to a lack of focus and coordination.
• Reforms in public sector compensation and employment are necessary to improve service quality and reduce corruption.

Key Recommendations

• Consolidate fiscal adjustment by reducing the overall fiscal deficit to around 3% of GDP and eliminating all quasi-fiscal deficits in the energy sector.
• Improve revenue institutions by revising tax legislation, reducing exemptions, and strengthening indirect taxes such as VAT and excises.
• Modernize the revenue system by integrating the four bodies responsible for revenue collection and addressing issues like smuggling, weak auditing, and low remuneration.
• Align sectoral policies with the NSPR to ensure that public spending is efficient and targeted to the most vulnerable groups.
• Strengthen public administration and improve financial accountability to enhance service delivery and reduce corruption.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1.1 shows the evolution of GDP by expenditure components.
• Table 1.2 provides data on absolute poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic in 2001.
• Table 2.1 and Table 2.2 summarize key economic and fiscal indicators for the Kyrgyz Republic from 1990 to 2001.
• Table 4.1 outlines key macroeconomic parameters from 2001 to 2010.
• Table 6.1 to Table 6.7 provide detailed insights into public spending on health, education, and social protection.
• Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2 illustrate exports, investments, savings, and consumption trends.
• Figure 2.1 shows trends in real wages.
• Figure 6.1 and Figure 6.2 provide insights into health capacity and social spending.
• Figure 7.1 to Figure 7.5 show implementation of spending, employment trends, and salary structures.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic has made progress in economic recovery and fiscal adjustment, but significant challenges remain in terms of poverty reduction, institutional capacity, and the sustainability of public spending. The report calls for a focused and comprehensive strategy to improve revenue collection, eliminate quasi-fiscal deficits, and align public expenditure with the NSPR to ensure long-term growth and poverty reduction.