2014年-世界发展银行全球_Sudan_State-Level_Public_Expenditure_Review___Meeting_the_Challenges_of_Poverty_Reduction_and_Basic_Service_Delivery_Volume_2_Background_Papers_167页_5mb

Summary of Report No. ACS8803: Sudan State-level Public Expenditure Review

Core Content

This report, titled SUDAN: State-level Public Expenditure Review – Meeting the Challenges of Poverty Reduction and Basic Service Delivery, is a comprehensive analysis of Sudan's macroeconomic and fiscal trends, fiscal decentralization arrangements, and sub-national revenue and expenditure management. It was prepared by the World Bank in collaboration with the Government of Sudan and includes insights from field visits and consultations with various stakeholders. The report aims to assess the effectiveness of fiscal policies and provide policy recommendations to improve public financial management and address regional imbalances.

Main Viewpoints

A. Macroeconomic Context

• Sudan has significant natural resources and potential for economic growth, particularly in agriculture, oil, and minerals.
• However, the secession of South Sudan in 2011 caused a severe economic shock, leading to a decline in oil production, fiscal revenues, and foreign exchange earnings.
• Real GDP growth slowed significantly after the secession, with a negative growth rate of -2.6% in 2012, compared to double-digit growth before.
• The country faces challenges such as regional conflicts, poverty, unemployment, and disparities in income and access to socioeconomic opportunities.
• Sudan's growth strategy should focus on improving the investment climate, promoting private sector-led growth, and diversifying the economy away from oil toward agriculture, industry, and other sectors.

B. Resource Mobilization and Public Expenditure Management

• Sudan's fiscal position has deteriorated since 2009 due to revenue shortfalls and rising expenditures.
• The fiscal balance has shifted from a surplus of 1.75% of GDP in 2002–04 to a deficit of about 3% of GDP post-secession.
• The deficit is largely financed by domestic borrowing, including monetized financing from the Central Bank and non-bank sector borrowing (e.g., Government Musharka Certificates and Sukuk).
• Revenue mobilization remains weak, with oil revenues accounting for 14.6% of total revenue in 2013, down from 53% in 2008.
• The tax system is heavily reliant on indirect taxes (60% of total revenue), especially VAT (41% of total revenue), while income tax accounts for only 9%.
• Domestic tax revenue increased to 7.4% of GDP in 2013, up from 7.1% in 2012.

C. Recent Developments in State-Level Revenues

• State-level revenues have been significantly affected by the loss of oil production and fiscal revenues.
• The oil transit fee agreement with South Sudan in 2013 provided some financial relief, with Sudan receiving US$318.4 million by November 2013.
• Revenue from oil transit fees is expected to increase over the next three years, with over $1.5 billion in annual inflows.
• However, the immediate impact on fiscal pressures is limited due to the time required to reach full oil production levels.

D. Recent Developments in State-Level Expenditures

• State-level expenditures have increased, with a focus on recurrent and capital spending.
• Recurrent expenditures per capita have grown, but capital expenditures remain low.
• The report highlights the impact of fiscal adjustments on development expenditures, which were heavily affected by the 2011–2013 period.
• Expenditures on health and education have been a priority, but there are significant disparities between states and localities.

Key Information

Fiscal Decentralization Arrangements and Regional Imbalances

• Fiscal decentralization is a key mechanism for managing public finances and addressing regional disparities.
• The report discusses the responsibilities and revenue assignments of sub-national governments, including states and localities.
• Intergovernmental fiscal transfers have improved, but regional disparities persist due to differences in revenue-generating capacity.
• The Federal Ministry of Health and other state ministries are key players in expenditure management, particularly in health and education.
• The report notes that the secession of South Sudan has exacerbated regional disparities, with some states receiving more federal transfers than others.

Sub-National Revenue Mobilization

• Sudan's sub-national revenue system is underdeveloped, with limited own revenue sources and heavy reliance on federal transfers.
• The report explores the potential for increasing local revenue through land sales and other mechanisms.
• Lessons from African countries suggest that improving tax systems and reducing exemptions can enhance revenue mobilization at the sub-national level.
• There are concerns about fiscal corruption in local government authorities, as seen in Tanzania, and the need for reforms to ensure transparency and accountability.

Public Financial Management at Sub-National Levels

• The budget formulation and approval process is a critical area for improvement.
• Budget credibility and comprehensiveness are essential for effective public financial management.
• Budget execution, procurement, internal and external audit, and financial reporting are areas where sub-national governments need strengthening.
• The report emphasizes the importance of involving state assemblies in the budget process to ensure better accountability and transparency.

Policy Considerations

• The report outlines key policy considerations for Sudan, including the need for structural reforms, exchange rate flexibility, and improved tax systems.
• There is a call for greater focus on poverty reduction and social protection programs, particularly for the most vulnerable populations.
• The report also discusses the role of microfinance institutions and the importance of developing a robust financial sector to support economic growth.

Conclusion

The report provides a detailed analysis of Sudan's fiscal challenges and opportunities, emphasizing the need for structural reforms, improved tax systems, and better public financial management at the sub-national level. It highlights the importance of fiscal decentralization in addressing regional imbalances and promoting inclusive growth. The findings suggest that Sudan needs to diversify its economy, improve exchange rate flexibility, and enhance the effectiveness of its social protection programs to achieve long-term economic stability and poverty reduction.