2011年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Chad_-_Public_Expenditure_Review_Update___Using_Public_Resources_for_Economic_Growth_and_Poverty_Reduction_41页_1mb

Public Expenditure Review Update: Republic of Chad

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank, provides an analysis of Chad's public expenditure and fiscal management in the context of its oil wealth. It evaluates how effectively oil revenues have been used to support economic growth and poverty reduction, identifies challenges in public financial management, and outlines recommendations for reform.

Main Points

Country Overview

• Economic Context: Chad is one of the poorest countries in the world, with 55% of the population living below the poverty line and 36% in extreme poverty.
• Geography and Development Challenges: Landlocked, located at the intersection of the Sahel and Sahara, Chad has suffered from 30 years of conflict, instability, and drought, which have severely damaged infrastructure and exacerbated poverty.
• Oil Production Impact: Oil production began in 2003 and led to a significant increase in GDP per capita, from around $220 in 2002 to $770 in 2008.
• Poverty Reduction Strategies: Chad adopted its first National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS I) in 2003 and a second (NPRS II) in 2008, aiming to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015.
• Development Progress: Some improvements have been made in physical infrastructure, education, and health, but significant challenges remain in achieving MDGs, particularly in reducing poverty, improving maternal and child health, and achieving gender equality.

Fiscal Sustainability

• Oil Reserves: Chad has approximately 1.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, which are expected to be depleted within 25 years.
• Fiscal Imbalance: Public spending has increased rapidly, driven by oil revenues, while non-oil revenue remains limited. This has led to an unsustainable fiscal position.
• Debt Concerns: If current policies continue, Chad's debt path will lead to an unmanageable debt burden. The country's fiscal position deteriorated significantly, with the non-oil primary deficit reaching 28% of non-oil GDP in 2009.
• Savings and Absorptive Capacity: The government has not maintained adequate savings to cushion against oil price volatility. There is a risk of exceeding absorptive capacity and creating unsustainable recurrent expenditure.
• Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH): The PIH framework is recommended to guide the use of oil revenues, linking spending to oil wealth rather than current revenues to ensure sustainability for future generations.

Effective Use of Public Resources

• Functional Analysis: Budgetary allocations reflect poverty reduction strategies, but actual spending in priority sectors like health and education has been insufficient.
• Crowding Out: Priority spending is being crowded out by unbudgeted expenditures, particularly in the military.
• Economic Analysis: Public investment has expanded, especially in physical infrastructure, but cost-effectiveness is questionable. For example, classrooms in Chad cost more than four times those in Niger.
• Staffing and Transfers: Expenditure on goods and services, transfers, and staffing has not kept pace with investment, leading to concerns about the operational capacity of new infrastructure.
• Field Observations: Newly built health and education facilities are often underutilized or empty, indicating poor implementation and resource allocation.

Acceleration of Public Finance Management Reforms

• Budget Preparation: Progress has been made, but a limited multi-year framework and lack of formal project management systems hinder long-term planning.
• Simplification Needs: The expenditure chain remains complex, and institutional capacities are limited. Delegated appropriations are delayed, and emergency procedures are overused for non-priority sectors.
• Coordination and Capacity Building: Weak inter-ministerial coordination and limited capacities in budget execution directorates call for improvements in institutional capacity and project management.

Key Information

• Currency: CFA Franc (CFAF)
• Exchange Rate: US$1.00 = 478.47 CFAF (as of January 31, 2011)
• Government Fiscal Year: January 1 – December 31
• Key Institutions:
  • World Bank
  • IMF
  • African Development Bank (AfDB)
  • European Investment Bank (EIB)
  • International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)
  • International Development Association (IDA)
• Key Acronyms:
  • LFI: Initial Budget Law
  • LFR: Revised Budget Law
  • MTEF: Medium-Term Expenditure Framework
  • PAMFIP: Public Financial Management Modernization Support Program
  • DSA: Debt Sustainability Analysis
  • DAO: Spending without prior authorization
  • SNRP I/II: First and Second National Poverty Reduction Strategies
  • STEE: Société Tchadienne d'Eau et d'Electricite
  • SHT: Société des Hydrocarbures du Tchad
  • CPA: Pharmaceutical Purchasing Center

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Update on the Achievement of MDGs – shows Chad is off track for most goals, including poverty eradication, gender equality, and child mortality reduction.
• Table 2: Selected Government Finance Indicators, 2004-12 – highlights the rapid increase in public expenditure and the decline in fiscal balance.
• Figure 1: Recent Growth in Per Capita Income – illustrates the economic transformation due to oil revenues.
• Figure 2: Gross Primary Enrollment Rate – shows progress in education but still below regional averages.
• Figure 3: Immunization, DPT – indicates low immunization rates despite some improvements.
• Figure 4: Oil Reserves – provides data on Chad's oil reserves relative to other countries.
• Figure 5: Evolution of Government Revenue, 2006-12 – shows the surge in government revenue due to oil production.
• Figure 6: Comparison of non-oil revenue mobilization – highlights Chad's lower mobilization compared to other oil-producing countries.
• Figure 7: Government Revenues and Expenditures, 1995-2010 – shows the growing fiscal deficit.
• Figure 8: Evolution of crude oil prices, 2006-09 – reflects the volatility in oil prices affecting fiscal stability.
• Figure 9: Expenditure as a percent of oil revenues – illustrates Chad's high proportion of spending relative to oil revenues.
• Figure 10: Evolution of BEAC Deposits and Advances, 2008-09 – shows the impact of oil price drops on government finances.
• Figure 11: Forecasted Present Value of Debt to GDP (Ratio) – highlights the increasing debt burden.
• Figure 12-15: Comparison of NPRS I and II targets with LFR allocations – shows gaps in meeting strategic goals.
• Figure 16-17: Sectoral budget execution during NPRS I and II – indicates poor performance in priority sectors.
• Figure 18-19: Distribution of DAO between economic categories – highlights the dominance of military spending.

Boxes

• Box 1: Transfers to STEE and COTONCHAD – highlights the allocation of funds to infrastructure and water projects.
• Box 2: Credits Délégues in the Health Sector – discusses the challenges in timely budget execution and resource allocation.

Summary

Chad has experienced significant economic growth due to oil production, but this has not translated into effective poverty reduction. The government has adopted poverty reduction strategies, yet budget execution remains weak, especially in priority sectors. Fiscal sustainability is a major concern due to the rapid depletion of oil reserves and the heavy reliance on oil revenues. The report recommends the adoption of a more sustainable fiscal framework, the improvement of public financial management, and the strengthening of institutional capacities to ensure efficient and effective use of public resources.