2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Uganda_Third_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_InstrumentStaff_Report_and_Press_Release_78页_1mb

Uganda: Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) Summary

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the third review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Uganda, conducted by the IMF in late 2014. It includes the Staff Report, Informational Annex, and Press Release, which assess Uganda's economic performance, policy implementation, and structural reforms.

Key Economic Developments

• Real GDP growth in FY2013/14 was at 5.2%, slightly below expectations due to under-execution of externally-financed public investment.
• Inflation slowed to 1.8% in October 2014, with core inflation at 2.4%, well below the consultation bands.
• International reserves peaked at 4.7 months of imports in June 2014, supported by FDI inflows and reduced imports.
• The shilling depreciated by over 10% since February 2014, driven by global dollar strengthening and increased import demand.

Program Performance

• The program performance was satisfactory, with core inflation and reserve coverage meeting the PSI criteria.
• The fiscal deficit increased to 6.8% of GDP in FY2014/15 due to infrastructure investment and central bank recapitalization.
• Domestic arrears decreased by 0.8% of GDP, and efforts to reduce them further are ongoing.
• The tax-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise by 0.5% annually to support development investment and meet long-term EAC convergence targets.

Economic Outlook and Risks

• Growth for FY2014/15 is projected at 6.1%, driven by scaled-up public investment and private sector recovery.
• Inflation is expected to remain within the PSI consultation bands at 4.5%.
• Current account deficit is projected to widen, but international reserves are still adequate at 4.1 months of imports.
• Risks include external shocks (regional security, donor delays, FX outflows) and domestic risks (fiscal slippages, implementation capacity during elections).

Fiscal Policy

A. Fiscal Stance Supportive of Program Objectives

• The fiscal strategy involves increasing revenue and restraining current spending to support development projects.
• A strong revenue package was approved by parliament, removing many tax exemptions and increasing excise taxes.
• Tax revenue fell short of expectations, partly due to low compliance and enforcement, and insufficient tax buoyancy.
• The overall fiscal deficit is expected to narrow in the medium term through efficiency gains and spending savings.

B. Revenue-Enhancing Measures and Expenditure Control

• The revenue package generated less than anticipated, and additional measures are needed to meet targets.
• New tax measures include higher export levies, withholding tax on reinsurance, and tax on parliamentarians' allowances.
• Efficiency gains from improved tax administration and audits are expected to add 0.1% of GDP to revenue.
• Expenditure control is emphasized, with the government using contingency reserves and implementing wage and pension savings to reduce fiscal pressure.

Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

A. Preserving Low Inflation

• The Bank of Uganda (BoU) kept monetary policy tight, despite falling inflation, to maintain price stability.
• The central bank rate (CBR) was reduced by 50 basis points to 11% in June 2014, but remained unchanged in subsequent meetings.
• Lending rates remained high at 22%, while time deposit rates declined.
• The BoU maintained exchange rate flexibility, intervening only sporadically to stabilize volatility.

B. Promoting a More Efficient Financial System

• Lending rates did not respond significantly to CBR cuts, leading to sluggish credit recovery.
• Non-performing loans (NPLs) were declining, but banks still faced profitability challenges.
• The financial sector is under strong supervision, with recent actions including revoking licenses of non-compliant institutions.
• AML/CFT framework is being strengthened in line with international standards.

Structural Reforms

A. Public Financial Management (PFM) and Economic Efficiency

• Progress has been made on PFM reforms, including drafting regulations for the PFM bill with IMF support.
• The Treasury Single Account (TSA) is being implemented to improve coordination and transparency.
• Tax compliance and arrears reduction are ongoing priorities.

B. Central Bank and Financial Sector Modernization

• The BoU recapitalization with marketable securities was completed ahead of schedule.
• The inflation targeting framework is being improved to enhance monetary policy effectiveness.

C. Social Protection

• Social safety nets are being developed to support vulnerable populations.
• The Charter of Fiscal Responsibility is being implemented to ensure transparency and accountability in public spending.

D. Regional Integration

• East African Community (EAC) integration is progressing, with infrastructure development playing a key role.
• Infrastructure projects, including hydropower and railway, are expected to boost productivity and reduce economic vulnerability.

Staff Appraisal

• The IMF staff supports the completion of the third PSI review.
• All quantitative assessment criteria and structural benchmarks were met.
• The authorities have taken action to address tax revenue shortfalls and improve implementation capacity.

Supporting Documents

• Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding are included in the report.
• Annexes cover debt sustainability analysis, tax policy, fiscal responsibility, and social safety nets.