2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sierra_Leone_Request_for_An_Extended_Arrangement_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_95页_3mb

报告摘要

Sierra Leone IMF Country Report Summary

Core Content

This document is the IMF Country Report No. 18/371, which outlines the Request for an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Sierra Leone. The report includes a Press Release, Staff Report, Debt Sustainability Analysis, Staff Statement, and Statement by the Executive Director. The Executive Board approved a 43-month ECF arrangement of SDR124.44 million (US$172.1 million), which is 60% of Sierra Leone's IMF quota. The first disbursement of US$21.5 million was made immediately, with the remainder to be phased over the program period based on semi-annual reviews.

The program is aimed at addressing new challenges since June 2017, including fiscal slippages, external shocks, and weak implementation of prior reforms, while also improving long-term growth prospects. The main objectives are to safeguard macroeconomic stability, deepen structural reforms, and advance the Education for Development and poverty reduction agendas.

Main Objectives and Policies

A. Objectives and Risks

The previous program's objectives remain relevant: reducing inflation, mobilizing revenue, safeguarding financial stability, and strengthening external resilience.
The program faces downside risks from weaker balance of payments inflows and volatility in the mining sector.
Fiscal slippages have delayed deficit reduction, with the deficit in 2017 at 8.75% of GDP, 2.5% above the target.
The country is now classified as being at "high risk" of debt distress, necessitating a new arrangement to support sustainable fiscal and economic policies.

B. Medium-term Macroeconomic Framework and Objectives

The medium-term growth forecast has been revised to 5%, down from the previous 7%, due to reduced confidence in the economic outlook.
Inflation is expected to decline from 19.29% in October 2018 to 9.6% by the end of the program.
Public debt remains high, and fiscal sustainability is a key concern, requiring ambitious revenue mobilization and expenditure control.

C. Near-term Challenges

Fiscal slippages and budget arrears have created a tight liquidity environment, limiting government spending on programs and projects.
Revenue mobilization is central to the program's success, particularly through fuel subsidy reform and improving tax collection.
The new government, elected in April 2018, has taken steps to revive the IMF program, including ending financing through arrears and cancelling or delaying some foreign-financed projects.

D. The Structural Reform Agenda

The structural reform agenda includes central bank safeguards, governance improvements, and public financial management.
The Treasury Single Account (TSA) has been fully operationalized, helping to centralize revenue and expenditure.
The Bank of Sierra Leone (BSL) is strengthening its supervisory and regulatory capacity, with enhanced oversight of state-owned banks.
Reforms in the extractive sector include the passing of the extractive industries revenue bill, which aims to increase revenue and reduce corruption.

Key Program Considerations

The new ECF arrangement replaces the June 2017 one, due to program slippages and changing macro-financial conditions.
The program emphasizes the need for forceful implementation, particularly in revenue mobilization and expenditure control, to achieve fiscal sustainability and medium-term growth.
Structural reforms are being pursued to improve governance, public accountability, and financial system stability.
The new government has committed to improving economic stewardship, focusing on social priorities and sustainable public spending.

Program Monitoring and Financing

The program will be monitored through semi-annual reviews.
Disbursements will be phased over the 43-month period.
Debt sustainability is a key concern, with the program aiming to reduce the risk of debt distress.
External borrowing will be anchored by debt sustainability goals.

Staff Appraisal

The staff supports the request to replace the previous arrangement with a new one under the ECF.
The new program is expected to safeguard macroeconomic stability, deepen structural reforms, and advance the country's development goals.
The staff report outlines the economic developments, program objectives, and policy measures.
The debt sustainability analysis confirms that the new arrangement is consistent with the country's debt sustainability.

Key Information and Figures

GDP growth for 2018 is 3.25%, below the 6% target.
Inflation is 19.29% in October 2018, remaining high.
Gross reserves have declined to below $500 million, below the program target.
The retail fuel price was increased by 33% in July 2018, which was a key step in reducing budget pressures.
Fiscal adjustment measures include fuel subsidy reform, TSA implementation, dividend collection from SOEs, and audit of capital spending.

Summary of Actions

Fuel subsidy reform: Implemented on July 13, with retail fuel prices floated.
Suspension of import GST waivers: Mostly suspended in April 2018.
Comprehensive review of tax concessions: Preliminary findings submitted to the government.
TSA fully operational: Centralizing revenue and expenditure.
Dividends from SOEs: Significant transfers made, with further action pending capital adequacy.
Audit of capital spending: Ongoing, with cuts in lower priority projects in the July 2018 supplemental budget.
Wage reform: Identified excess and double payments, with savings expected.

Conclusion

The new ECF arrangement is a response to the country's fiscal and macroeconomic challenges, aiming to achieve long-term stability and growth. The focus on revenue mobilization, expenditure control, and structural reforms is critical for the success of the program. The staff supports the new approach, which is tailored to current circumstances and designed to be more sustainable. The program will be monitored through semi-annual reviews, and disbursements will be phased over the 43-month period.