20251208-国投期货-大类资产运行周报_美元降息预期升温_风险资产涨势延续_9页_1mb

报告摘要

This report analyzes global and domestic asset performance from December 1-5, 2025.
US dollar rate cut expectations rose due to recent data, sustaining risk asset gains.
Global equity and commodity markets advanced, while bond markets declined, showing a hierarchy of commodity > equity > bond.
In China, the November PMI indicators showed contraction in manufacturing (49.9) but expansion in services (52.1), with similar asset patterns: equity and commodities up, bonds down.
The outlook emphasizes monitoring the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting, with high probability of a cut shifting focus to next year's monetary policy.

Driven by US data elevating dollar rate cut forecasts, global risk assets continued their upward trend.
Charts reveal: stock indices rose (e.g., emerging markets +1.36%), commodities surged (e.g., S&P GSC commodity index +1.94%), bonds fell (global bond index -0.24%).
Factors include ongoing lack of progress in Russian-Ukrainian talks and a dollar index decline, contributing to asset divergence with commodities leading over bonds.

China's 11-month PMI data indicated weakening manufacturing (contraction) but resilient services, impacting market sentiment.
Domestic equity and commodity markets rose, while bonds retreated, mirroring the global trend with product prices outperforming equities.
Specifics: A-share indices like the Shanghai Composite increased slightly, with sectoral shifts favoring growth or industrials.

Core focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, signaling likely December interest rate reduction.
This shift could alter market dynamics, increasing attention on future dollar policy implications.
Risk warnings noted if US inflation data improves slower than expected, potentially disrupting asset prices in the short term.

Provided by Ding Peizhou, highlighting market conditions and recommendations based on current data.
Disclaimers apply, emphasizing that the report is for institutional clients only and not investment advice.

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