20250920-五矿期货-橡胶周报_橡胶破位下跌_60页_3mb

橡胶市场分析总结（2025/09/20）

市场观点

1. 橡胶破位下跌：近期橡胶价格出现显著下跌，主要受工业品整体下跌和天气预期边际减弱双重驱动。

2. 对短期待观察：

   • 原料端短期盈利能力显著下降。
   • 胶价下行，供过于求导致库存偏高，需求弱化。
   • 中长期 新生产能扩张可能抑制价格上行空间。

3. 重点关注天气和需求变化：

   • 泰 countries heavy rainfall previously accounted for supply-side support, but has been weaken in the past week.
   • Demand remains weak, with tire production in China stable but export demand likely to decline.

4. ??， many trader sentiment remains cautious. Middle-term outlook remains slightly positive.

5. ??:

   • Avoid heavy short positions prematurely.

交易建议（仅供参考）

• Reduce short/ Improve inventory management timely.
• Track official demand-related policies closely.
• Weather forecast remains king for medium-term price range.