20260721-招银国际-兖煤澳大利亚-03668.HK-Strong_sales_volume_in_2Q26_alongside_increased_ASP_7页_1mb

报告摘要

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) Summary

Core Content Overview

Yancoal Australia (YAL) has reported strong performance in the second quarter of 2026, with notable increases in sales volume and average selling prices (ASP). The company's attributable sales volume grew by +43% YoY, while attributable production volume increased by +15% YoY. This growth is attributed to a low base in the previous year due to shipping delays. The blended ASP increased by 13% YoY, contributing to a revenue estimate of approximately A$1.85bn in 2Q26, which represents a +63% YoY and +53% QoQ growth.

In July, coking coal prices and GC Newc prices saw increases of over 30% and 20% respectively, indicating a positive trend in coal prices. The company has revised its 2026E, 2027E, and 2028E earnings forecasts upwards by 55%, 14%, and 7%, respectively, due to higher ASP assumptions for both thermal and metallurgical coal. The BUY rating is maintained, supported by resilient thermal coal prices driven by El Nino and the ongoing Middle East conflict, which both support energy prices.

The target price (TP) has been slightly revised up to HK$39 from HK$38, based on net present value (NPV) calculations. The acquisition of Kestrel Coal Mine is expected by the end of September 2026, but has not yet been modeled into the forecasts.

Key Financial Highlights

Sales Volume

Thermal Coal: Attributable sales volume increased by +44% YoY to 9.8mn tonnes in 2Q26.
Metallurgical Coal: Attributable sales volume rose by +38% YoY to 1.8mn tonnes in 2Q26.
Total Attributable Sales Volume: +43% YoY to 11.6mn tonnes in 2Q26.

ASP (A$/tonne)

Thermal Coal: Increased by 15% YoY to A$149/t.
Metallurgical Coal: Increased by 11% YoY to A$219/t.
Blended ASP: Increased by 13% YoY to A$160/t.

Revenue

Estimated revenue in 2Q26 is ~A$1.85bn, representing a +63% YoY increase.

Financial Performance (2023A–2028E)

Metric	2023A	2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
Revenue (AUD mn)	7,778	6,860	5,949	6,649	6,521	6,625
YoY Growth (%)	-26.3%	-11.8%	-13.3%	+11.8%	-1.9%	+1.6%
Net Profit (AUD mn)	1,819	1,216	440	892	720	708
YoY Growth (%)	-33.1%	-63.8%	+102.8%	-19.4%	-1.6%	-
EPS (Reported) (AUD)	0.92	0.33	0.68	0.54	0.54	0.54
Consensus EPS (AUD)	na	na	na	0.71	0.71	na
P/E (x)	6.1	16.9	8.3	10.3	10.5	-
P/B (x)	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7	-
Yield (%)	9.3	3.3	6.6	5.3	5.2	-
ROE (%)	13.7	4.8	9.6	7.4	7.1	-
Net Gearing (%)	-25.2%	-22.6%	-23.1%	-28.6%	-26.6%	-

Guidance and Assumptions

Attable saleable production (2026E): 36.5–40.5mn tonnes (±5% YoY).
Operating cash cost (excluding royalties): A$90–98/t (±2%–7% YoY).
Capex: A$750–900mn (up 0%–20% YoY).

Key Assumptions for Valuation

Long-term thermal coal price (starting 2029E): A$140/t (unchanged).
Long-term metallurgical coal price (starting 2029E): A$200/t (unchanged).
Unit cash cost inflation: 1% p.a. (unchanged).
WACC: 7.2% (unchanged).
AUD/HKD rate: HK$5.5.

Key Risks

Further decline in coal prices.
Elevated input costs.
Extreme weather affecting production and delivery.

Valuation Sensitivity

TP Sensitivity to Coal Price

WACC	Thermal Coal Price (A$/t)	Metallurgical Coal Price (A$/t)
5.2%	21	44
6.2%	33	41
7.2%	39	39
8.2%	36	37
9.2%	34	35

Shareholding and Performance

Shareholding Structure:
- Yankuang Energy: 62.3%
- China Cinda AM: 7.7%
Share Performance:
- 1-month: -2.8%
- 3-month: -17.0%
- 6-month: +6.0%

Conclusion

Yancoal Australia continues to demonstrate resilience in its coal price environment, supported by El Nino and Middle East conflicts. Despite the increased production and ASP, the company's earnings forecasts have been revised upwards, and the BUY rating is maintained. The TP remains at HK$39, with the acquisition of Kestrel Coal Mine pending. The company's financial health is strong, with a stable cash position and solid liquidity ratios. However, the company is exposed to key risks, including coal price volatility, rising input costs, and weather-related disruptions.

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