期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Summer1997_1_27页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary - Summer 1997

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Summer 1997 provides an overview of recent research and developments in the field of International Trade and Investment, highlighting several key areas of economic inquiry. It outlines the structure of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), its research programs, and current working papers, while also delving into specific topics such as globalization, wage changes, trade agreements, and trade policy.

Main Research Areas

1. Globalization and Wages

• The decline in unskilled wages in the U.S. and other industrial countries has been attributed to globalization and skilled-biased technological change.
• Two main schools of thought:
  • Skilled-biased technological change: Suggests that increased use of computers has shifted demand toward skilled labor.
  • Foreign outsourcing: Argues that the outsourcing of production stages has also contributed to the wage shift.
• Studies indicate that outsourcing accounts for about 20% of the shift in the U.S. and a larger portion in Mexico.
• Technological change and globalization are interlinked, with the latter affecting factor price equalization and wage gaps across countries.
• Krugman and Venables propose a core-periphery model where globalization leads to manufacturing agglomeration in core countries and lower wages in periphery countries.

2. Trade and Endogenous Growth

• Research explores how trade influences endogenous growth through knowledge spillovers and investment.
• Coe and Helpman find that trading partners' R&D significantly affects a country's total factor productivity.
• Eaton and Kortum use patent data to show knowledge spillovers between U.S. and Japanese firms.
• Baldwin, Seghezza, and Forslid suggest that openness promotes growth through investment, while protection retards it.
• Helliwell investigates the role of social capital in explaining growth rates in Asian economies and within U.S. states.
• Rose and Feenstra develop an unconventional measure of openness based on the timing of exports and link it to GDP per capita.

3. Regional Trade Agreements

• Home bias in trade is observed even with low tariffs, suggesting national borders play a role in trade patterns.
• Free trade areas (FTAs) and customs unions differ in their impact on trade and economic outcomes.
• Krueger argues that customs unions are superior to FTAs because they require a common external tariff, reducing production distortions.
• Casella finds that small countries benefit disproportionately from trade bloc expansion.
• Fernandez highlights non-traditional benefits of trade agreements, such as credibility, signaling, and coordination.
• Blomstrom and Kokko examine the effect of regional integration on direct investment flows.

4. Political Economy of Trade Policy

• Grossman and Helpman incorporate political economy factors into trade policy analysis, showing how campaign contributions influence tariff structures.
• Sectors with lobbies receive less protection compared to non-lobbied sectors, as protection is inversely related to the import-to-export ratio.
• Anderson introduces a new effective rate of protection (ERP) model, which is more suitable for industries with imperfect competition.
• Irwin analyzes the political economy of historical tariff episodes, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, and finds evidence of log-rolling coalitions in U.S. Senate voting.

5. Imperfect Competition and Strategic Trade Policy

• The automotive industry has been a focus of strategic trade policy discussions.
• Voluntary Export Restraints (VERs) with Japan were used to offset import competition, but they failed to benefit U.S. firms due to rents being transferred to Japanese firms.
• Levinsohn examines the impact of a 100% tariff threat on Japanese auto parts purchases, finding that it had limited success in increasing U.S. profits.
• Knetter, Ghosh, and Wolf analyze how exchange rates affect export pricing, showing that firms pass through only a portion of exchange rate changes.

6. Antidumping Policy

• Antidumping policies are frequently used by firms facing import competition.
• These policies can lead to price increases even without actual duties, as foreign firms may raise prices to avoid being labeled as dumpers.
• Staiger and Wolak find that U.S. firms facing competition from Canada and Mexico are more likely to file antidumping petitions to gain trade-restricting effects.

Key Information

• The NBER provides CD-ROMs with detailed trade data, including U.S. imports and exports, and world trade flows.
• Globalization affects wage gaps and factor price equalization, with technological change playing a significant role.
• Regional trade agreements have non-traditional benefits, including bargaining power and coordination.
• Political economy influences tariff structures, with lobbies and campaign contributions being key factors.
• Strategic trade policies, such as VERs, may have limited effectiveness in promoting domestic interests.
• Antidumping policies can raise prices and discourage competition, even without tariff application.

Conclusion

The NBER Reporter highlights the complex interplay between globalization, trade policy, and economic outcomes. It emphasizes the importance of empirical data and theoretical models in understanding wage trends, growth mechanisms, and trade agreements. The research also underscores the role of political economy and imperfect competition in shaping trade policy decisions and market behaviors.