世界银行-叙利亚经济在长达十年的战争后陷入废墟（英）-2023.3-54页_4mb

Economic Impact: The Syrian economy has been severely impacted by a decade-long war, with GDP halving between 2010 and 2020. ongoing conflicts and natural disasters have caused substantial damage to infrastructure, particularly in sectors like agriculture, transport, and housing. Syria relies heavily on imports for essentials, and economic instability in neighboring countries exacerbates the crisis.

Recent Developments: Economic conditions worsened due to high inflation, trade decline, and supply shortages. A cholera outbreak has spread across the country, worsened by damaged healthcare infrastructure and water scarcity. Fuel smuggling between Syria and Lebanon increased due to price differentials, though official checkpoints show minimal impact. Public displacement remains high, with over 13 million internally displaced or refugees.

Outlook: Real GDP is projected to contract further in 2023 due to conflict, input shortages, and supply chain disruptions. Inflation is expected to remain elevated despite slight declines, exacerbated by currency depreciation and subsidy cuts. Fiscal deficits will be large, but domestic financing limitations constrain government spending. Climate shocks and reduced humanitarian aid pose significant risks.

Special Focus: Damage Assessment: Syria's infrastructure damage is estimated at $8.7–$11.4 billion across 14 cities and 11 sectors. The Agrifood Value Chains suffered the highest damage (50% of total), followed by Housing and Transport. Aleppo recorded the highest damage, disproportionately affecting sectors like Agriculture and Health. Recovery is hampered by data fragmentation and the dynamic conflict environment.