2023-09-17-世界银行-叙利亚经济监测_2023年夏季_大地震的经济后果（英）-58页_58页_9mb

Syria's economy, already fragile from a decade-long conflict, suffered a severe blow from a magnitude 7.6 earthquake in February 2023. Physical damages are estimated at $5.2 billion, affecting key sectors like housing, agriculture, and transportation. The earthquake caused nationwide economic disruption, with nighttime illumination data showing a sharp decline in output immediately after, but some recovery by March, though slower in Syria than in neighboring Türkiye.

The disaster exacerbated existing economic challenges, including high inflation—consumer prices surged by 11% in April 2023—and a weakened Syrian pound, with significant price disparities across regions due to supply chain disruptions and varying levels of government control. Agriculture losses reached $1.3 billion, reflecting compounding impacts from conflict and drought.

Humanitarian response was hindered by limited funding ($7.9 billion needed for recovery), infrastructure damage, and political barriers. Only one aid convoy crossed from Türkiye to AANES-controlled areas by mid-year, and access remained restricted. Prior to the earthquake, over 6.6 million people lived in affected areas, including 3 million internally displaced persons and 4.6 million outside government control. Access to basic services like healthcare and sanitation deteriorated, worsening risks of communicable diseases.

The outlook remains grim, with GDP contraction projected at 5.5% for 2023, driven by damaged infrastructure, supply chain issues, and limited reconstruction funding. Syria's enduring conflict undermines recovery, making the country highly vulnerable to secondary impacts like cholera and further displacement. Continued monitoring of key economic indicators is vital to understand how conflict and natural disasters interact, while regional normalization initiatives may offer limited upside potential.