联合国西亚经济社会委员会-2024年战争对黎巴嫩的社会经济影响（英）_103页_9mb

Summary of the Socioeconomic Impacts of the 2024 War on Lebanon

Core Content

The 2024 war in Lebanon, which began on 8 October 2023, has had devastating socioeconomic impacts, compounding six years of economic and social crises. The report outlines the human, economic, and social toll of the war, as well as the path to recovery and policy recommendations.

Key Messages

• The war has worsened Lebanon's already fragile economic and social situation, leading to a 14-year setback in the Human Development Index (HDI).
• The war caused massive physical destruction, particularly in southern governorates like Nabatieh and South Lebanon.
• Education, employment, and access to basic services were severely disrupted, with over 500,000 students affected and 69% of children missing classes during active fighting.
• The private sector employment fell by 25%, with many businesses forced to close or suspend operations.
• Child nutrition and food security have reached critical levels, especially in Baalbek-Hermel and Bekaa.
• The war has had a significant impact on key economic sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and manufacturing.
• Sustainable recovery requires political commitment, institutional reforms, and investment in critical areas.

Human Cost

• Casualties: By January 2025, the war had claimed 4,285 lives, with 27% being women and children. Approximately 17,200 people were seriously injured, including 2,890 women and 1,479 children.
• Medical staff: Direct attacks on healthcare facilities resulted in 241 deaths and 295 injuries among medical and paramedical personnel.
• Displacement: The war displaced 1.2 million civilians within days, with 98,994 still displaced as of December 2024 due to ongoing insecurity and infrastructure damage.
• Education disruption: 769 educational facilities were repurposed into shelters, and nearly 400 schools were completely closed. 69% of children missed classes during the war, and 31% never returned after the ceasefire.
• Parents' concerns: 85% of parents expressed serious concerns about their children's educational future.

Physical Destruction

• Structures affected: By December 2024, 90,076 structures were damaged or destroyed, including 23,489 completely destroyed.
• Housing sector: 59,577 housing units were damaged, with 29% rendered uninhabitable.
• Critical infrastructure: 989 vital facilities, including hospitals, schools, roads, and water treatment plants, were attacked.
• Governorates impacted: Nabatieh had the highest number of affected buildings (31,451), followed by South Lebanon (17,842).
• Water infrastructure: 34 facilities were damaged, affecting over 400,000 residents' access to clean water.

Economic Impact

• Employment loss: Private sector employment fell by 25%, with 36% job loss in areas directly targeted, double the 17% rate in unaffected areas.
• Unemployment: 24% of workers in hardest-hit regions were still unemployed by December 2024, compared to 7% elsewhere.
• MSMEs: 15% of MSMEs permanently closed, while 75% suspended operations temporarily. 55% of MSMEs experienced physical damage, with 50% of manufacturing firms affected.
• Tourism: The sector's contribution to GDP dropped to 5.5% in 2024, with a significant decline in passenger activity at Beirut International Airport.
• Agriculture: Over 2,193 hectares were damaged, including 134 hectares of olive groves, 48 hectares of citrus orchards, and 44 hectares of banana plantations. Harvests in key districts were reduced by up to 84%.
• Manufacturing: Only 22% of businesses resumed normal operations post-war, with 13% closing permanently and 45% operating at reduced capacity.
• GDP contraction: Lebanon's economy contracted by 38% between 2019 and 2024. With the war, it is expected to contract by 5.7–10% in 2024 and 2% in 2025 if no reforms are implemented.
• 2030 GDP projection: Even with necessary reforms, Lebanon's GDP is projected to reach $46.9 billion in 2030, 8.4% below its 2017 peak of $51.2 billion.

Economic Outlook and Recovery Path

• Growth projections: If reforms succeed, Lebanon could see GDP growth of 8.2% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027.
• Reforms needed: The report emphasizes the need for reforms in governance, corruption, public financial management, and social protection to catalyze recovery.
• Policy recommendations:
  • Short-term: Restore basic services, stabilize the financial sector, and provide immediate support to affected communities.
  • Medium-term: Implement targeted economic reforms, improve trade and manufacturing, and strengthen social protection systems.
  • Long-term: Focus on sustainable development, environmental recovery, and institutional rebuilding.

Key Challenges

• Institutional weakness: Weak governance, high corruption, and poor public services have exacerbated the crisis.
• Fiscal constraints: Public debt reached 180% of GDP in 2023, and government revenue fell to 6.1% of GDP in 2022, one of the lowest globally.
• Inflation and currency depreciation: Inflation reached triple-digit levels for 44 months, and the Lebanese pound lost over 98% of its value.
• Foreign investment: FDI has remained low, dropping from $2.7 billion in 2018 to $0.58 billion in 2023, and the war is expected to further disrupt inflows.

Conclusion

The 2024 war has caused unprecedented damage to Lebanon's socioeconomic fabric. Recovery will require a coordinated, multi-sectoral approach, with a focus on restoring trust in institutions, revitalizing the economy, and ensuring access to basic services and education for affected populations. Sustainable recovery is contingent on political will, structural reforms, and substantial financing from domestic, private, and international sources.