20151201-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_32页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - December 1, 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the financial and market performance of various companies and sectors across different regions, including China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It highlights key industry developments, investment recommendations, and market assumptions.

Main Points and Key Information

China - Wind Sector

Market Concerns: The curtailment issue in northern regions (e.g., Gansu and Xinjiang) is expected to be the worst in 2015, with curtailment rates exceeding 40% and 30% respectively.
Policy Outlook: The government remains supportive of renewable energy development and is expected to introduce more favorable policies.
Tariff Cuts: Tariff cuts are likely to impact the wind sector, but category IV regions (with the lowest tariff cuts) are expected to benefit due to better utilization and higher returns.
Efficiency Gains: Wind turbine efficiency has improved by 30% since 2010, and further improvements are expected.
Sector Catalysts: Better wind resources, kick-off of UHV transmission lines, and higher 13th Five-Year Plan targets.
Sector Risks: Worse-than-expected curtailment, weaker wind resources, and slower UHV construction.
Sector Recommendation: Maintain OVERWEIGHT due to positive outlook and supportive policies.
Key Company: Huaneng Renewables is recommended as a BUY with a target price of HK$3.30.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

Downgrade: Downgraded from BUY to SELL due to margin pressure and competitive challenges.
Performance: Share price rebounded 37% from early September 2015, but margin pressure is expected to be larger than anticipated.
Sales and Margins: Sales growth is expected to slow due to loss of market share to new entrants, and net margins are projected to decline.
Capacity Utilization: Xushui Plant Phase I only reached 12% utilization in 2015, while Phase II and III will add more capacity, potentially leading to lower utilization rates.
New Models: New models like H9 and H8 Coupe are underperforming, leading to idle capacity and price cuts.
Target Price: Revised target price to HK$7.50, with an upside of -21.1% from current price.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17719.9	-0.4	-0.6	0.3	-0.6
S&P 500	2080.4	-0.5	-0.4	0.1	1.0
FTSE 100	6356.1	-0.3	0.8	-0.1	-3.2
AS30	5218.2	-0.6	-2.0	-1.3	-3.2
CSI 300	3566.4	0.3	-5.0	0.9	0.9
FSSTI	2855.9	-0.1	-1.6	-4.7	-15.1
HSI	21996.4	-0.3	-3.0	-2.8	-6.8
JCI	4446.5	-2.5	-2.1	-0.2	-14.9
KLCI	1672.2	-0.6	0.1	0.4	-5.1
KOSPI	1992.0	-1.8	-0.6	-1.8	4.0
Nikkei 225	19747.5	-0.7	-0.7	3.5	13.2
SET	1359.7	-0.3	-2.5	-2.5	-9.2
TWSE	8320.6	-0.9	-1.9	-2.7	-10.6
BDI	584	0.5	13.2	-19.0	-25.3
CPO (RM/mt)	2095	0.5	1.4	-2.1	-8.8
Brent Crude (US$/bbl)	45	-0.6	-0.6	10.1	22.3

Top Picks

BUY

Beijing Capital (694 HK): Target price HK$11.40, potential upside 31.8%
ICBC (1398 HK): Target price HK$7.60, potential upside 62.0%
Bank BJB (BJBR LJ): Target price HK$980.00, potential upside 38.0%
DiGi.Com (DIGI MK): Target price HK$5.95, potential upside 19.0%
Maybank (MAY MK): Target price HK$10.00, potential upside 20.2%
CapitaLand (CAPL SP): Target price HK$4.08, potential upside 35.1%
DBS (DBS SP): Target price HK$22.34, potential upside 35.4%
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB): Target price HK$215.00, potential upside 25.7%
PTT (PTT TB): Target price HK$340.00, potential upside 32.8%

SELL

SIA Engineering (SIE SP): Target price HK$3.30, potential downside 8.6%
UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target price HK$7.00, potential downside 12.3%

Corporate Events

China City Railway Transportation Technology Luncheon: Hong Kong, December 1
Regional 1H16 Strategy Forum: Kuala Lumpur, December 2
Red Star Macalline Roadshow: Shanghai, December 7
Singapore O&G Corporate Roadshow: Taipei, December 8–9
Singapore Strategy 2H15 Analyst Presentation: Taipei, December 10–11

Malaysia - Banking Sector

Loan Growth Moderates: Loan growth is slowing, but deposit growth is lagging, leading to elevated funding costs.
Key Company: RHB Capital (RHBC MK): Upgraded to BUY due to a lumpy write-back on investment securities, with a target price of RM6.25.

Indonesia - Plantation Sector

IPOC 2015 Nusa Dua Bali: Takeaways from the event suggest potential for growth in the plantation sector.

Thailand - Construction Services Sector

Sector Sales and Earnings Growth: Expected to return in 2016 due to contributions from mega projects.
Sector Upgrade: Upgraded to OVERWEIGHT.
Key Company: Airports of Thailand (AOT TB): Upgraded to BUY with a target price of Bt277.00, though sustainability of results is in question.

Key Assumptions

Country	2014 GDP %	2015F GDP %	2016F GDP %
US	2.4	2.5	2.5
Euro Zone	0.9	1.5	1.7
Japan	-0.1	0.5	1.5
Singapore	2.9	2.5	2.9
Malaysia	6.0	4.8	4.8
Thailand	0.9	2.7	4.0
Indonesia	5.0	4.8	5.4
Hong Kong	2.5	1.8	1.5
China	7.3	6.5	6.7

Conclusion

The wind sector in China is expected to benefit from supportive policies and improved efficiency, despite current curtailment issues.
Great Wall Motor faces significant margin pressure and competition, leading to a downgrade from BUY to SELL.
Malaysia's banking sector is affected by the mismatch between deposit and loan growth, leading to elevated funding costs.
Thailand's construction services sector is expected to recover in 2016 with contributions from mega projects.
The overall market indices show mixed performance, with some regions showing positive growth while others experience declines.
Investment recommendations are varied, with several companies being upgraded to BUY and others downgraded to SELL based on their financial performance and market outlook.

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