20150210-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_32页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 10 February 2015

Key Stories

Singapore

REITs: Budgeting tax incentives for S-REITs.
Shipyard: Heightened Brazilian risks.
Singapore Airlines (SIA SP): Downgraded to HOLD with a target price of S$12.60.

China

Pioneer Pharma (1345 HK): Facing tender pricing pressure and intensifying competition. Revised target price to HK$6.30 (BUY), with expected revenue growth but potential decline in gross margin. Earnings growth guidance may be lowered to 20-25% yoy in 2015. New product rollouts are expected to contribute Rmb140m in 2015, with a lower net margin of ~10%. Adjusted revenue and gross margin assumptions for 2014-16F.

Hong Kong

Want Want (151 HK): Disappointing 2014 results due to slower sales and higher milk powder costs. Maintain HOLD with a target price of HK$8.88. Sales are expected to recover in 2015 with improved gross margins and stronger rice cracker performance due to Chinese New Year effects. Delayed new product launches.

Indonesia

Malindo Feedmill (MAIN LJ): Feed production and margins stabilise. Re-iterate BUY with a target price of Rp2,800 (30.8% upside).

Malaysia

Dialog Group (DLG MK): Profit within expectations despite a write-off for non-recoverable costs. BUY with a target price of RM1.80.
DiGi.Com (DIGI MK): Core net profit rose 20% yoy in 2014. Downgraded to HOLD.

Thailand

Amata Corporation (AMATA TB): Net profit rose 30.4% yoy in 2014 due to stronger land transfers in 4Q14. BUY with a target price of Bt21.90.
E for L Aim (EFORL TB): Earnings maintained through investment arm despite WCIIG consolidation. BUY with a target price of Bt2.20.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17729.2	(0.5)	2.1	(0.0)	(0.5)
S&P 500	2046.7	(0.4)	1.3	0.1	(0.6)
FTSE 100	6837.2	(0.2)	0.8	5.2	4.1
AS30	5770.1	(0.1)	3.3	6.1	7.1
CSI 300	3345.9	1.0	(0.2)	(5.7)	(5.3)
FSSTI	3418.0	(0.4)	(0.2)	2.4	1.6
HSCEI	11647.4	(0.4)	0.6	(3.6)	(2.8)
HSI	24521.0	(0.6)	0.1	2.5	3.9
JCI	5348.5	0.1	1.4	2.5	2.3
KLCI	1811.6	(0.1)	1.7	4.6	2.9
KOSPI	1947.0	(0.4)	(0.3)	1.2	1.6
Nikkei 225	17711.9	0.4	0.9	3.0	1.5
SET	1601.8	(0.7)	1.2	4.7	7.0
TWSE	9421.5	(0.4)	0.4	2.2	1.2
BDI	554	(0.9)	(6.1)	(21.9)	(29.2)
CPO (RM/mt)	2304	2.2	8.4	(0.1)	0.3
Nymex Crude (US$/bbl)	53	2.3	6.6	9.3	(0.8)

Top Picks (BUY)

Ticker	CP (Icy)	TP (Icy)	Pot. +/-
Sunac China	7.19	9.29	29.2
ICBC	5.54	6.90	24.5
Bank Mandiri	11,700.00	12,500.00	6.8
Ijm Corp	6.98	7.60	8.9
DBS	19.45	22.68	16.6
Pacific Radiance	0.77	1.00	29.9
Krung Thai Bank	23.00	29.00	26.1
Sino Thai Engr	24.80	30.25	22.0

Sell

Ticker	Share Price	Target Price	Pot. +/-
UMWH Holdings	HK$11.06	HK$10.00	(9.6)

Key Assumptions

Metric	2013	2014	2015F
GDP (% yoy)	1.9	2.7	3.2
Brent (US$/bbl)	99.45	1,101	1,300
CPO (US$/ml)	722	765	788
BDI	1,101	1,300	1,400

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Begin	Close
Oil & Gas / Shipping Market Outlook Luncheon Talk	Kuala Lumpur	12 Feb	12 Feb
PTT Global Chemical Corporate Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	23 Feb	24 Feb
Plantation Outlook Seminar 2015	Kuala Lumpur	2 Mar	2 Mar
First Resources Luncheon	Kuala Lumpur	4 Mar	4 Mar
CIFI Holdings Roadshow	Singapore	16 Mar	16 Mar
ASEAN Conference	Taipei	17 Mar	18 Mar

Company Update: Pioneer Pharma (1345 HK)

Under Tender Pricing Pressure: Facing significant pricing pressure in Hunan and Zhejiang, with price cuts of 8-10% for Fluxum and Polimod, and exit of Vinpocetine sodium chloride injection due to low tender prices.
Earnings Growth: Previously targeted 30% yoy growth for 2015, but may now be revised to 20-25% yoy due to competition and price cuts.
New Products: Expected to contribute over Rmb140m in revenue in 2015, but with a net margin of ~10%. Marketing and promotion expenses are likely to increase.
Valuation: Target price revised to HK$6.30 (BUY), based on 18x 2015F PE or 0.9x PEG.

Company Description

Pioneer Pharma is a leading marketing, promotion, and channel management service provider in China, importing pharmaceutical products and medical devices.

Stock Data

Metric	Value
GICS sector	Health Care
Bloomberg ticker	1345 HK
Shares issued (m)	1,333.3
Market cap (HK$m)	6,080.0
Market cap (US$m)	784.2
3-mth avg daily turnover (US$m)	1.9

Price Performance

Period	Performance (%)
52-week high/low	HK$7.64/HK$3.63
1mth	(27.5)
3mth	(36.3)
6mth	(12.3)
1yr	31.8
YTD	(25.2)

Analysts

Carol Dou: +8621 54047225 ext 811 | caroldou@uobkayhian.com
Serena Shao: +862154047225×817 | serenashao@uobkayhian.com

Company Update: Want Want (151 HK)

Disappointing 2014: Mid-single-digit decline in revenue and mid-to high-single-digit drop in net profit due to slower consumer spending and higher milk powder costs.
2015 Outlook: Expected to benefit from new products and lower costs. Gross margin is projected to improve to 41.7% in 2015 from 40.6% in 2014.
New Product Delay: New product launches delayed to 2015, including chilled dairy products with JV partner Morinaga.
Target Price: HK$8.88 (HOLD), with a 3.6% upside.

Company Description

Want Want is a leading producer of snack foods and beverage products in China, headquartered in Shanghai.

Stock Data

Metric	Value
GICS sector	Consumer Staples
Bloomberg ticker	151 HK
Shares issued (m)	13,196.0
Market cap (HK$m)	113,089.9
Market cap (US$m)	14,586.0
3-mth avg daily turnover (US$m)	18.0

Price Performance

Period	Performance (%)
52-week high/low	HK$13.06/HK$8.57
1mth	(14.8)
3mth	(15.5)
6mth	(21.1)
1yr	(15.8)
YTD	(16.1)

Analyst

Renee Tai: +852 2826 1324 | renee.tai@uobkayhian.com.hk

Essentials

New Product Rollout: Delayed to 2015, with potential contribution to sales.
Gross Margin Recovery: Expected to improve by 4% yoy in 2015 due to lower milk powder prices and improved sales.
Sales Growth: Expected to be supported by Chinese New Year effects and new product launches.

Assumption Changes

Segment	2014 (US$m)	2015 (US$m)	Change (%)
Rice crackers	676	800	-6.3%
Dairy and beverages	1,784	1,873	-13.3%
Snack	1,134	1,343	-7.7%
Others	10	11	-1.8%
Total sales	3,604	4,028	-20.6%
Net profit	627	755	-20.7%

Valuation/Recommendation

Want Want (151 HK): Maintain HOLD. Target multiple reduced to 20x, reflecting slower earnings growth. Earnings expected to recover with 20% yoy growth in 2015.

Risk Factors

Regulatory Uncertainties: Anti-corruption campaign in China.
Intensifying Competition: Especially in snack and beverage sectors.
New Product Launch Risks: Market acceptance and M&A activities.
Client Relationships: Potential risks in maintaining client relationships and winning tenders.

Profit & Loss (Want Want)

Metric	2013 (US$m)	2014F (US$m)	2015F (US$m)	2016F (US$m)
Net turnover	3,817.7	3,603.6	4,027.6	4,544.8
EBITDA	940.7	840.0	1,034.0	1,181.5
EBIT	805.0	711.8	891.1	1,043.1
Net profit	687.3	627.2	754.8	872.0
Net profit (adj.)	687.3	627.2	754.8	872.0

Balance Sheet (Want Want)

Metric	2013 (US$m)	2014F (US$m)	2015F (US$m)	2016F (US$m)
Fixed assets	1,235.6	1,567.4	1,668.1	1,781.7
Other LT assets	201.9	201.9	201.9	201.9
Cash/ST investment	2,059.8	1,572.4	1,684.0	1,819.3
Other current assets	850.8	771.7	843.5	954.7
Total assets	1,996.9	2,161.5	2,612.4	3,062.6
ST debt	429.5	446.4	446.4	446.4
LT debt	26.1	51.0	51.0	51.0
Shareholders' equity	1,157.6	1,203.7	1,521.9	1,862.4

Key Metrics

Metric	2013 (%)	2014 (%)	2015 (%)	2016 (%)
EBITDA margin	22.9	22.1	21.2	21.2
Pre-tax margin	21.4	22.4	21.3	21.2
Net margin	18.7	19.2	18.2	18.1
ROE (%)	34.8	25.6	27.3	28.6
Consensus net profit	-	-	679	797
UOBKH/Consensus (x)	-	-	0.92	0.95