2025-06-05-Jefferies-伊芙控股公司（EVEX）_电动垂直起降（eVTOL）峰会_接近无人驾驶原型飞行测试的前夕_11页_174kb

报告摘要

Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX) Equity Research Summary

Company Description

Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX) is the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) arm spun out from Embraer, focusing on electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. It aims to capture a share of the global UAM market, estimated at $760 billion in revenue by 2025-2040, with an order pipeline exceeding $5.5 billion for over 1,800 vehicles.

Financial and Operational Highlights

Liquidity: As of Q1 2025, EVEX had $411 million in available liquidity, sufficient to support operations through 2026.
Backlog: Approximately 2,800 eVTOLs in backlog, with over 600 (21%) firm orders from ~30 global customers, including helicopter operators, airlines, and corporates.
Revenue Targets: Full production capacity of 480 eVTOLs/year could generate $3 billion in annual revenue, with break-even expected at 100/year production.
Burn Rate: Average normalized cash burn of $40 million after adjustments.
Financial Projections: 2025E revenue: $5 million; 2026E revenue: $4.6 billion; EBITDA improvement to positive by 2028.

Development Roadmap

Certification and Testing: First unmanned flight tests expected in Summer 2025; Entry Into Service (EIS) in early H2 2027; EASA certification by 2028.
Production Facility: A modular plant in Brazil capable of scaling production from 120 to 480 eVTOLs/year.
Deliveries: Initial deliveries targeted for Brazil and the US in 2027.

Valuation and Investment Thesis

Rating and Price Target: BUY rating; 12-month price target of $7.00, representing a 30% upside from the $5.40 prior closing price.
DCF Model: Assumptions include 11% WACC, 4% terminal growth, and 8% free cash flow growth from 2031-2035.
Peer Comparison: Valuation based on DCF; peers include Archer (ACHR), Joby (JOBY), and Vertical Aerospace (EVTL).
Upside Potential: Revenue growth at 140% CAGR from 2027-2030, driven by target to capture ~30% eVTOL deliveries and achieve 22% gross margins.

Risks

Regulatory Hurdles: Delays in ANAC and FAA certification, scrutiny over safety, noise pollution, and operations, with risks affecting market adoption and revenue timelines.
Market Uncertainty: Potential for oversupply, stringent regulations, and competition from other eVTOL developers.
Financial Risks: Need for further funding post-certification ($150–$200MM required), order cancellations, and volatility in cash flow due to investments.