JPMorgan_Econ_FI-China_4Q_GDP_and_December_activity_data_beat_expectations_2...-112899571_13页_1mb

报告摘要

4Q GDP Growth: Registered 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and the 5.0% full-year 2024 target. Sequential growth of 7.6% q/q (SA) marked a significant pickup from 3.1% in Q3.
December Activity: Stronger economic activity in IP, exports, and retail sales; mixed results for fixed-asset investment (FAI), with manufacturing and infrastructure investment outperforming, while real estate investment continued to weaken.
Domestic Consumption: Retail sales rebounded to 3.7% YoY, driven by policies like trade-in subsidies and improved housing transactions, though auto sales saw a slight decline.

Growth Forecast: Expected at 4.2% year-on-year for 2025, contingent on U.S. tariff risks; baseline assumes a 60% tariff hike (effective in Q2), leading to slower growth in Q2 and Q3 (avg. 1.6% q/q SA).
Policy Support: Front-loaded exports supported by early fiscal actions (e.g., government bond issuance, RRR cuts), and monetary policies including potential 30bp policy rate cuts and 100bp RRR cuts to mitigate external risks.
Domestic Factors: Consumption is expected to gain from expanded trade-in subsidies, but real estate remains a drag; housing activity showed marginal improvement but sustainability is uncertain.
Nominal GDP Performance: Full-year 2024 nominal GDP grew 4.2% (GDP deflator -0.7%); recent GDP revisions may alter growth profiles.

US Tariff Scenarios: High uncertainty; moderate hikes (e.g., 40%) could reduce economic impact, but timing and magnitude drive quarterly variations.
Domestic Policy Response: Easing measures can offset some tariff damage, but incomplete without robust fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Contact:

Haibin Zhu (Analysts) | Grace Ng, Tingting Ge
Email: haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com, grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com, tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com
Tel: +852 2800-7039, +852 2800-7002, +852 2800-0143

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