JPMorgan_Econ_FI-Global_Data_Watch_A_damn_fine_cup_of_coffee-112914725_96页_9mb

报告摘要

Global GDP Growth: The global economy is expected to show strong growth at the turn of the year, driven by robust consumer goods spending in the US and a policy-driven rebound in China.
Inflation Trends: Headline CPI inflation is rising due to pressure on goods prices, while core inflation is projected to remain stable at around 3%. Energy prices, such as Brent crude, are expected to increase by 6% this month, affecting consumer spending.
Central Bank Policies: Central bank easing is limited in the short term due to solid global growth and a rising dollar. The BoJ is expected to hike rates next week, while the ECB is on track for sustained easing.

Policy Uncertainty: The new US administration, under Trump, is expected to implement policies that aim to reduce engagement with global trade and immigration, creating tension between growth-supportive and less constructive economic goals.
Business Sentiment: US business sentiment is likely to improve due to solid profit gains and expected regulatory and tax relief, while global business sentiment is expected to decline due to trade war concerns.
Economic Data: US December retail sales and factory output gains suggest sustained domestic demand growth above 3%.

GDP Growth: China delivered a strong 4Q24 GDP growth of 7.6%, with a positive monthly momentum at year-end.
Trade and Fiscal Policy: The growth is likely to be transitory, driven by a front-loaded trade war boost and short-lived fiscal policy impulse. The government may need to provide more technical details to support the economic plan.

Underperformance: Western Europe remains a significant underperformer, with the Euro area expected to grow at a meager 0.6% ar, compared to the global average.
UK Growth: The UK's 4Q24 GDP estimate was revised to flat due to stagnation in economic activity.
Inflation and ECB: Inflation pressures are subsiding, and the ECB is expected to continue easing. The BoE may ease 25bp at its next meeting due to weak data and rising inflation expectations.

Budget and Debt: France's new PM Bayrou is expected to maintain a fiscal tightening path, with a deficit of 5.7% of GDP in 2024. The 2025 budget is likely to be approved by March.
Growth Impact: Political uncertainty may drag on growth, but the fiscal path is consistent with EU rules.

Korea and Indonesia: The Bank of Korea is expected to hold rates due to financial stability concerns, while Bank Indonesia cut 25bp, leading to currency depreciation and foreign portfolio outflows.
Divergent Policies: Central banks in EM Asia are responding to growth concerns and financial stability considerations with varied outcomes.

EMEA EM: Emerging markets in EMEA are expected to grow at a slower pace than developed markets, with some countries like Poland and Romania facing fiscal and political risks.
Latin America: Mexico is preparing a "Mexico Plan" to address trade tensions with the US, aiming to boost regional investment and reduce reliance on Chinese imports.
Canada: Canada faces a significant downside risk due to retaliatory tariffs and potential export taxes on energy products, but may ease aggressively to cushion against economic contraction.

Fed: Hawkish pivot with only two rate cuts expected this year.
BoJ: Expected to raise rates by 25bp next week.
BoE: Likely to ease 25bp at its next meeting due to weak data and rising inflation expectations.
ECB: On track for sustained easing this year.

US-Mexico Trade Tensions: The Trump administration threatens large tariffs on Mexico, which could have adverse economic effects.
Mexico Plan: Aims to boost regional investment and reduce reliance on Chinese imports, but requires more technical details to gain confidence.

Inflation: Headline CPI inflation is rising, while core inflation remains stable.
GDP Growth: Strong global growth is expected in 2024, with a slower pace in Western Europe and potential contraction in some EM countries.
Business Sentiment: US sentiment is expected to rise, while global sentiment is likely to fall due to trade war concerns.

United States: Real GDP growth expected at 2.8% in 2024, with a slight slowdown in 2025.
Euro Area: Expected to grow at 0.8% in 2024, with a modest increase in 2025.
Japan: Negative GDP growth in 2024, with a rebound expected in 2025.
Emerging Markets: Growth is expected to be higher than developed markets, but with significant variation across countries.

The global economy is showing strong growth, but this is expected to be followed by a slowdown.
Inflation is rising due to goods price pressures, but core inflation is expected to remain stable.
US policy uncertainty and trade tensions are likely to affect global economic performance.
Central banks are adjusting their policies in response to inflation and economic data.
Regional economic outlooks vary significantly, with Western Europe lagging behind and some EM countries facing challenges.

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