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January 2025 Economic Conditions Overview

• Macroeconomic Indicators: NBS PMIs disappointed, signaling cautious year-start growth.
• Government Bond Issuance and PBOC Operations: Strong bond issuance in January led by CGB, with net issuance of 453bn yuan. PBOC phasing out MLF with a net liquidity withdrawal of 795bn yuan, while scaling up OMO injections totaling 2,900bn yuan.
• Shipping and Freight: Container shipping saw mixed trends, with CCFI declining for most routes except USWC. Departing container ships' deadweight tonnage rose 6.4% mtd, while bulk shipping decreased.
• Housing and Sales: Housing transactions declined by 4.8% mtd but improved year-on-year. Secondary home sales rose by 32% mtd, supported by inventory dynamics.
• Consumer and Production Trends: Retail sales for cars and NEVs were volatile. High-frequency trackers indicated slowing auto IP growth, operating rates down. Pork prices stabilized, with seasonality fading.
• Travel and Mobility: Domestic and international flight executions surged due to LNY demand, reaching 118% and 152% of 2019 levels.
• Food and Commodity Prices: Agricultural prices rose with LNY effects, while commodity prices were mixed, with aluminum gaining and steel rebar declining.

Disclaimer: Summary based on J.P.Morgan's report, subject to report disclaimers.