JPMorgan_Econ_FI-Greater_China-114656054_9页_1mb

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JPMorgan Greater China Economic Analysis Summary

Overview

JPMorgan's Asia Pacific Economic Research, dated 11 April 2025, assesses economic risks in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan amid escalating tariff tensions and policy responses. Key themes include the impact of trade disputes, revised GDP forecasts, and deflationary pressures.

Tariff Tensions and Growth Risks

US-China tariff escalation has intensified, with a 40% jump forecasted for 2025 tariffs (versus consensus of 15-25%), raising to a total of 125% due to reciprocal retaliations.
This led to revising China's 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 4.4% from 4.6%, highlighting risks from trade disruptions.
Taiwan's growth forecast was cut to 2.0% for 2025, driven by US tariff front-loading boosting exports and concern over slowing global demand.

Policy and Monetary Responses

JPMorgan anticipates additional fiscal support (e.g., extra government bonds) and monetary easing, including a 50bp RRR cut and 20bp policy rate reduction in mid-2025.
Policy measures focus on quick growth impact, with trade-in subsidies providing short-term lifts but faded effects.

Inflation and Deflation

CPI inflation is revised to -0.3% for 2025, reflecting ongoing deflation and subdued consumer prices, driven by factors like pork and energy declines.
PPI deflation intensified, with energy-related declines amplifying concerns on corporate revenues and employment.
Deflationary pressures drag on economic activity, including fiscal revenues in a highly-leveraged economy.

Trade and Regional Analysis

China's export data shows mixed trends, with AI-related tech exports strong but overall risks from trade disputes and weaker global demand.
Taiwan's economy is heavily dependent on export-oriented growth, with shipments to the US surging 200% year-on-year, mitigating short-term impacts.

Concluding Notes

Escalating tariffs pose significant risks, potentially prompting debt servicing shifts for consumption-led policies.
Global supply chain damage is anticipated if trade deceleration sharpens, adding to financial stability concerns.

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