2016年-数据局_CISCO：2015–2020年度可视化网络指数预测_14页_868kb

Cisco Visual Networking Index Summary: 2015–2020 Forecast

Core Content

The Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) provides a forecast and methodology for global IP traffic growth from 2015 to 2020. It highlights the increasing role of visual networking applications, particularly video, and the shift from wired to wireless devices.

Key Findings

Global IP Traffic Growth

• Annual IP Traffic Growth:
  • Global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte (ZB) threshold in 2016 and reach 2.3 ZB by 2020.
  • In 2016, global IP traffic will be 1.1 ZB per year or 88.7 EB per month.
  • By 2020, global IP traffic will reach 194 EB per month.
• CAGR:
  • IP traffic will grow at a 22% CAGR from 2015 to 2020.
  • From 2005 to 2020, IP traffic will increase nearly 100-fold.

Traffic Distribution

• Traffic Sources:
  • In 2020, consumer Internet traffic will account for 55% of total IP traffic.
  • Consumer-managed IP traffic will be 15% of total IP traffic.
  • Mobile data traffic will account for 13% of total IP traffic.
• Traffic by Network Type:
  • Consumer Internet traffic will be 82% of all fixed Internet traffic.
  • Consumer-managed IP traffic will be 87% of all managed IP traffic.
  • Consumer mobile data traffic will be 85% of all mobile data traffic.
• Traffic by Segment:
  • Consumer IP traffic will be 83% of total IP traffic.
  • Business IP traffic will be 17% of total IP traffic.

Device Trends

• Device Growth:
  • The number of IP-connected devices will be three times the global population by 2020.
  • 3.4 networked devices per capita by 2020, up from 2.2 in 2015.
• Device Traffic Contribution:
  • Wireless and mobile devices will account for 66% of total IP traffic by 2020.
  • Wired devices will account for 34% of total IP traffic by 2020.
  • In 2015, wired devices accounted for 52% of IP traffic.

Traffic by Application

• Busy-Hour Growth:
  • Busy-hour Internet traffic grew 51% in 2015, compared with 29% for average traffic.
  • Busy-hour traffic will increase by 4.6x from 2015 to 2020.
  • Average Internet traffic will double in the same period.

Video Traffic

• Video Dominance:
  • IP video traffic will make up 82% of all consumer Internet traffic by 2020.
  • In 2020, Internet video traffic will grow 3.6x from 2015 levels.
  • Internet video-to-TV will be 26% of consumer Internet video traffic by 2020.
• Video Growth Rates:
  • PC-originated traffic: CAGR of 8%.
  • TV traffic: CAGR of 17%.
  • Tablets: CAGR of 39%.
  • Smartphones: CAGR of 58%.
  • M2M modules: CAGR of 44%.
• Video Surveillance:
  • Internet video surveillance traffic will grow 10x from 2015 to 2020.
  • In 2020, it will account for 3.9% of total Internet video traffic, up from 1.5% in 2015.
• Virtual Reality:
  • VR traffic will grow 61x from 2015 to 2020, with a CAGR of 127%.
  • In 2015, VR traffic was 17.9 PB per month, up from 4.2 PB in 2014.
• VoD Traffic:
  • Consumer VoD traffic will nearly double by 2020.
  • Ultra-HD (UHD) will make up 20.7% of IP VoD traffic in 2020, up from 1.6% in 2015.
• CDN Traffic:
  • CDN traffic will carry 64% of all Internet video traffic by 2020, up from 45% in 2015.

Mobile Data Traffic

• Mobile Growth:
  • Mobile data traffic will grow 8x from 2015 to 2020, reaching 30.6 EB per month.
  • Mobile data traffic will grow at a 53% CAGR, faster than fixed IP traffic.
  • In 2020, mobile data will account for 16% of total IP traffic, up from 5% in 2015.

Regional Growth

• Middle East and Africa:
  • IP traffic will grow at a 41% CAGR from 2015 to 2020.
• Asia Pacific:
  • IP traffic will grow at a 22% CAGR.
• North America:
  • IP traffic will grow at a 19% CAGR.
• Western Europe:
  • IP traffic will grow at a 20% CAGR.
• Latin America:
  • IP traffic will grow at a 21% CAGR.
• Central and Eastern Europe:
  • IP traffic will grow at a 27% CAGR.

Traffic by Application Category

• Internet Video:
  • In 2020, it will account for 109.9 PB per month, growing at a 31% CAGR.
  • Internet video-to-TV will grow at a 29% CAGR and reach 23.2 PB per month.
• Web, Email, and Data:
  • Consumer traffic will grow at a 18% CAGR.
  • Fixed web and data will grow at 11%.
  • Mobile web and data will grow at 39%.
• File Sharing:
  • Consumer file-sharing traffic will remain relatively flat, with a 0% CAGR.
  • P2P file transfer will decline slightly, with a -5% CAGR.
  • Other file transfer will grow at 15%.

Methodology

• The Cisco VNI forecast combines analyst projections, in-house estimates, and direct data collection.
• Key data sources include:
  • SNL Kagan
  • Ovum
  • Informa Telecoms & Media
  • IDC
  • Gartner
  • comScore
  • Nielsen
  • Telecommunications regulators
• Application Adoption:
  • Assumptions are based on user behavior, bit-rate trends, and broadband speeds.
• Minutes of Use:
  • Estimations are made using data from Cisco Data Meter and Cisco Connected Life Market Watch.
• Bit Rates:
  • Regional and country average broadband speeds are used to estimate bit rates.
  • A 7% annual compression gain is applied to video bit rates.
• Traffic Migration:
  • The forecast reconciles Internet, managed IP, and mobile segments by adjusting for traffic migration between networks.

Conclusion

The Cisco VNI highlights the exponential growth in global IP traffic, driven primarily by video content and mobile devices. By 2020, consumer Internet traffic will dominate, while mobile data traffic will grow at a faster rate than fixed traffic. The methodology is robust, incorporating multiple data sources and usage patterns, ensuring accurate and comprehensive forecasts.