20160606-思科-Cisco_Visual_Networking_Index_Forecast_and_Methodology,_2015–2020_14页_868kb

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology Summary (2015-2020)

Core Content

The Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) provides forecasts and methodologies for global IP traffic growth from 2015 to 2020. It highlights the increasing reliance on visual networking applications, such as video and gaming, and the shift in traffic sources from wired to wireless and mobile networks.

Main Points

• Global IP Traffic Growth:

  • Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte (ZB) threshold in 2016 and reach 2.3 ZB by 2020.
  • In 2016, global IP traffic will be 1.1 ZB per year or 88.7 EB per month.
  • From 2015 to 2020, global IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 22%, nearly tripling in volume.
  • By 2020, wireless and mobile devices will account for 66% of total IP traffic, up from 52% in 2015.

• Traffic by Segment:

  • Consumer IP traffic will reach 162.2 EB per month by 2020.
  • Business IP traffic will reach 32.2 EB per month by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 18%.
  • Internet video will be the largest subsegment of consumer IP traffic, growing at a CAGR of 31% and reaching 109.9 EB per month in 2020.
  • Internet video-to-TV will grow 3.6-fold by 2020, reaching 23.2 EB per month.

• Device Usage Trends:

  • Smartphone traffic will exceed PC traffic by 2020.
  • PC traffic will account for 29% of total IP traffic in 2020, down from 53% in 2015.
  • Smartphones will account for 30% of total IP traffic in 2020, up from 8% in 2015.
  • TV, tablets, and M2M modules will see higher growth rates than PCs, with CAGRs of 17%, 39%, 58%, and 44%, respectively.

• Internet Video Highlights:

  • By 2020, 82% of all consumer Internet traffic will be video, up from 70% in 2015.
  • Internet video surveillance will grow tenfold from 2015 to 2020, reaching 3.9% of all Internet video traffic.
  • Virtual reality traffic will grow 61-fold over the same period, with a CAGR of 127%.
  • Consumer VoD traffic will nearly double by 2020, with UHD accounting for 20.7% of IP VoD traffic.

• CDN Traffic:

  • By 2020, 64% of all Internet video traffic will be carried by CDNs, up from 45% in 2015.

• Mobile Traffic Growth:

  • Mobile data traffic will increase eightfold between 2015 and 2020, reaching 30.6 EB per month.
  • Mobile data will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic.
  • Mobile data will account for 16% of total IP traffic by 2020, up from 5% in 2015.

• Regional Growth:

  • Middle East and Africa will have the fastest-growing IP traffic at a CAGR of 41%.
  • Asia Pacific will have the largest amount of business IP traffic by 2020 at 67.8 EB per month.
  • North America will have 59.1 EB per month of IP traffic, while Western Europe will have 28.0 EB per month.

• IP Traffic per Capita:

  • By 2020, global IP traffic will be 21 GB per capita, up from 7 GB per capita in 2015.
  • The number of networked devices per capita will reach 3.4 by 2020, up from 2.2 in 2015.

• Traffic Migration:

  • The methodology includes adjusting for traffic migration between fixed, managed IP, and mobile segments.
  • Traffic offloaded from fixed networks to mobile networks through dual-mode devices and femtocells is added back to the fixed forecast.

Key Information

• Methodology:

  • The forecast is based on analyst projections, Cisco's internal estimates, and direct data collection.
  • It includes application adoption, minutes of use, and kilobytes per minute.
  • Bit rates are adjusted based on broadband speed, digital screen size, and device computing power.
  • Traffic data is validated using service provider data.

• Definitions:

  • Consumer: Includes fixed IP traffic from households, universities, and Internet cafes.
  • Business: Includes fixed IP WAN and Internet traffic from businesses and governments.
  • Mobile: Includes data and Internet traffic from handsets, notebook cards, and mobile broadband gateways.
  • Internet: Denotes all IP traffic crossing the Internet backbone.
  • Managed IP: Includes corporate IP WAN and IP transport of TV and VoD.
  • Web, email, and data includes web browsing, email, and data transfer (excluding file sharing).
  • File sharing includes P2P and web-based traffic.
  • Internet video includes all video types, excluding P2P video file downloads.

• Traffic Breakdown (2020):

  • Consumer Internet traffic: 107 EB per month (66% of total consumer traffic).
  • Consumer Managed IP traffic: 29 EB per month (18% of total consumer traffic).
  • Consumer Mobile data traffic: 26 EB per month (16% of total consumer traffic).
  • Business Internet traffic: 23 EB per month (73% of business traffic).
  • Business Managed IP traffic: 4 EB per month (13% of business traffic).
  • Business Mobile data traffic: 4 EB per month (14% of business traffic).

• Traffic per Capita (2020):

  • Consumer IP traffic: 162 EB per month.
  • Business IP traffic: 32 EB per month.
  • Total IP traffic: 194 EB per month.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The VNI forecast highlights a significant shift in global IP traffic from wired to wireless and mobile networks, with video becoming the dominant traffic type. The rapid growth of mobile and video-related applications is expected to drive the market, with IP traffic per capita and the number of networked devices per capita increasing substantially. The methodology combines external analyst data with Cisco's internal estimates, ensuring a comprehensive view of traffic trends and future projections.