亚开行-亚洲发展展望（ADO）2018年更新：在不确定性加剧的情况下保持稳定（宏观）（英文）-2018.9-236页-14mb

Summary of Asian Development Outlook 2018 Update

Core Content

The Asian Development Outlook 2018 Update provides an analysis of economic trends and growth prospects in developing Asia amid heightened global uncertainty. The report emphasizes the region's resilience to external shocks, including trade conflicts and financial market volatility, and outlines the risks and opportunities for different subregions.

Main Views

• Growth Outlook: Developing Asia is expected to grow at 6.0% in 2018, with a revised forecast of 5.8% for 2019. Excluding high-income newly industrialized economies, growth is projected at 6.5% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019.
• China's Growth: The PRC's growth is forecast at 6.6% for 2018, unchanged from previous estimates, and 6.3% for 2019, slightly revised down due to slower domestic demand and trade tensions with the US.
• India's Growth: India's growth remains strong at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.6% for 2019, supported by domestic demand and export growth, though challenges like currency depreciation and inflation risks remain.
• Southeast Asia: The subregion is expected to grow at 5.1% in 2018, slightly lower than ADO 2018 forecasts. Six of the ten economies face subdued growth due to factors like weak exports and net capital outflow. Growth is forecast to return to 5.2% in 2019.
• Central Asia: The subregion's growth is forecast at 4.1% in 2018, up from ADO 2018. The 2019 forecast remains at 4.2%, with some economies showing improvement while others face challenges due to fiscal tightening and exchange rate adjustments.
• The Pacific: Growth in the Pacific is projected at 1.1% in 2018, down from ADO 2018 forecasts. The subregion's growth is expected to improve slightly in 2019, with increased government spending in Tuvalu and recovery in Papua New Guinea.

Key Information

• Inflation: The inflation forecast for developing Asia is 2.8% in 2018 and 2.8% in 2019, slightly lower than the earlier ADO 2018 forecast. Country-specific factors such as fuel subsidies and currency stabilization have helped contain inflation.
• Trade Conflict Impact: The trade conflict between the US and the PRC is a major risk to the region's growth. Escalation could disrupt cross-border production linkages and lead to capital outflows. The report estimates that 25% tariffs on all bilateral trade would have a significant negative impact on the PRC and the US, with smaller effects on the rest of developing Asia.
• Macroeconomic Stability: Asia's resilience is attributed to sound macroeconomic fundamentals, including fiscal and monetary reforms, central bank independence, and exchange rate flexibility. However, new vulnerabilities are emerging, such as capital flow reversals, currency pressures, and rising private debt.
• Policy Tools: Asian policymakers have a range of tools, including fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies, as well as macroprudential measures and capital flow management, to maintain stability.
• External Challenges: The report highlights the risks posed by financial and trade shocks, with the US-China trade conflict being the most significant. It also notes the potential for inflationary pressures and the need for vigilance in monetary policy.

Economic Trends and Prospects

• East Asia: Expected to grow at 6.0% in 2018 and 5.7% in 2019. The PRC's growth is projected to slow, while Hong Kong and Taipei maintain their growth momentum. Mongolia's growth is expected to rise significantly due to increased consumption and exports.
• South Asia: Growth is forecast at 7.0% in 2018 and 7.2% in 2019. Pakistan's growth is higher than expected, but its outlook is clouded by a large budget deficit and a deteriorating current account. Bhutan and Sri Lanka face lower growth due to weak domestic demand.
• Southeast Asia: Growth is expected to be 5.1% in 2018, with six economies experiencing subdued growth. Brunei and Thailand are expected to outperform earlier forecasts, while Cambodia and Singapore are likely to meet ADO 2018 projections.
• Central Asia: Growth is forecast at 4.1% in 2018 and 4.2% in 2019. Kazakhstan benefits from higher oil prices and production, while the Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan face challenges due to slowing mining output and fiscal tightening.
• The Pacific: Growth is projected at 1.1% in 2018, mainly due to a slowdown in Papua New Guinea caused by an earthquake. Timor-Leste and Palau face lower growth due to political uncertainty and reduced tourism, while Tuvalu's growth is expected to rise with increased government spending.

Conclusion

Despite external uncertainties, developing Asia is expected to maintain stable growth, supported by strong domestic demand and resilient economic structures. However, the region must remain vigilant against the risks posed by trade conflicts, financial shocks, and volatile oil prices. Policymakers are advised to use a combination of traditional and unconventional policy tools to ensure macroeconomic stability and support sustainable growth.