20160302-美银美林-香港交易所-00388.HK-From_China_with_new_uncertainties_11页_634kb

报告摘要

Summary of HKEx (Hong Kong Exchanges and Supervisory Commission) Analysis

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Hong Kong Exchanges and Supervisory Commission (HKEx) for FY15 and outlook for FY16, highlighting financial performance, valuation, and the impact of macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, particularly from China.

Main Points and Key Information

Financial Performance in FY15

Net Profit: HKD8.0bn, up by 54% YoY.
4Q15 Net Profit: HKD1.5bn, down by 23% QoQ (excluding one-off gains in 3Q15), due to a 29% QoQ drop in turnover.
Total Turnover (Jan-Feb 2016): HKD2.8tn, down by 14.1% YoY.

Earnings and Price Objective Outlook

2016E ADT Assumption: Reduced from HKD91bn to HKD80bn, which is 8% above actual Jan-Feb ADT of HKD74bn.
2016E Earnings Cut: Down by 17% to HKD166.
Price Objective: Set at HKD166/share, based on a 3-stage dividend discount model (DDM) with assumptions of 9.0% cost of equity, 4.0% terminal growth rate, and 90% payout ratio.

Key Risks and Uncertainties

Market Recovery: Expected to be mild, not strong, in the near term.
Capital Control Measures: Potential new policies in China may delay the introduction of SZ-HK Thru Train and QDII2, and may impact IPO activity in Hong Kong by limiting FX quotas for domestic investors.
IPO Fundraising Estimate Cut: Reduced to USD20bn from USD30-32bn due to possible FX quota restrictions.
RMB Depreciation: May temporarily boost turnover but could negatively impact investment sentiment.

Valuation Metrics (Dec 2015)

Metric	2014A	2015A	2016E	2017E	2018E
P/E	38.30x	25.30x	28.73x	26.65x	24.91x
Dividend Yield	2.36%	3.57%	3.14%	3.38%	3.62%
EV/EBITDA	-1.73x	-1.16x	-1.31x	-1.20x	-1.13x
Free Cash Flow Yield	2.00%	2.00%	23.78%	1.62%	1.51%

Impact of Capital Control Measures

Delay in Overseas Investment Products: May slow the introduction of SZ-HK Thru Train and QDII2, impacting market expectations.
Limits on SH-HK Thru Train: Although it contributed HKD49.5bn in inflows, the revenue contribution is below 3%, and its impact on earnings is minimal.
IPO Activity: Domestic cornerstone investors, who contribute 30-70% of IPO fundraising, may be affected by FX quota limitations.

Investment Rationale

Underperform Rating: Based on valuation and market turnover expectations.
Monopoly Position: HKEx remains a monopoly in Hong Kong and benefits from ADT.
Revenue Mix: Diversified, but still acts as a market proxy.

Key Financial Ratios

Ratio	2014A	2015A	2016E	2017E	2018E
ROE	24.7%	31.0%	23.1%	24.3%	25.4%
Operating Margin	66.7%	77.1%	70.3%	70.5%	69.7%
EBITDA Margin	68.0%	74.5%	71.5%	71.5%	70.5%
Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio	-607.5%	-358.5%	-377.8%	-398.8%	-419.7%

Key Risks to Price Objective

Downside Risks:
- Deterioration in market activity due to weaker investment sentiment.
- Delayed capital market reforms in China, reducing activity in both China and Hong Kong.
- Market volatility and loss of market confidence.

Stock Data

Metric	Value
Price	HKD175.00
Price Objective	HKD166.00
52-Week Range	HKD160.10 - HKD311.40
Price to Book Value	6.5x
ROE (2016E)	23.1%

Conclusion

The report concludes that HKEx faces new uncertainties due to China's capital control measures, RMB depreciation, and slow market recovery. Despite its monopoly status and diversified revenue streams, the Underperform rating is driven by lower earnings growth expectations and valuation concerns. The Price Objective of HKD166/share reflects the current outlook, but risks remain, particularly from policy changes and economic volatility.