VRAR，炒作，还是热门业务？（英文版）_34页-7mb

Virtual and Augmented Reality: Hype or Serious Business? Summary

1. Introduction

This 2017 report investigates whether Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR/AR) is a hype or a business with real potential. The survey was conducted with over 600 respondents, including developers and users of VR and AR technologies, from the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany. The report compares 2016 and 2017 market developments, evaluates the performance of VR and AR markets, and discusses the future potential of these technologies.

2. Core Concepts and Definitions

• Virtual Reality (VR): Simulates a 3D environment within a computer, allowing users to interact with it.
• Augmented Reality (AR): Enhances the real world by adding digital information.
• Mixed Reality (MR): Combines elements of both VR and AR, integrating real and virtual environments.

These technologies are seen as having the potential to revolutionize interaction and communication, with applications in training, maintenance, assemblage, and more. The report compares their development to the early stages of the Internet and smartphone adoption, referencing the "horseless carriage syndrome" — where users initially resist new technologies due to familiarity with existing ones.

3. The Emerging Value Chain

The VR/AR market is structured around a value chain consisting of three main segments:

3.1 Infrastructure

• Refers to the hardware required to use VR/AR, such as head-mounted displays (HMDs) and smart glasses.
• In 2016, the first consumer VR/AR hardware was released, and the market is expected to grow significantly due to technological advancements.

3.2 Tools & Platforms

• Early development stages have limited tools and require extensive coding skills.
• As with the Internet, it is expected that new and user-friendly platforms will emerge, making VR/AR content creation easier and more accessible.

3.3 Content

• The content market for VR/AR is still in its infancy, with limited options available.
• The lack of compelling content is a major barrier to adoption and growth.
• Businesses need tailored content, which is both time-consuming and expensive to produce.

4. International Market Performance (2016)

4.1 VR Market

• Oculus Rift: Did not meet projections due to component shortages and high costs.
• HTC Vive: Surpassed its own projections, shipping 420,000 units in 2016.
• Google Daydream: Sold 260,000 units, but faced challenges with low app adoption.
• Samsung Gear VR: Outperformed projections, shipping over 5 million units by 2017.
• PlayStation VR: Underperformed, with only 750,000 units sold despite high expectations.

4.2 AR Market

• AR market data was less accessible and fragmented compared to VR.
• Pokémon Go was a significant success, contributing to unexpected AR revenue of €1.2 billion in 2016.
• Major tech companies like Apple and Google are investing in AR infrastructure, with Apple rumored to be developing AR glasses and Google launching Tango for Android.
• Companies like Microsoft and Magic Leap are also making strides in the AR space, with Magic Leap receiving substantial investment.

5. User and Developer Perspectives

• Users: 86% believe AR/VR is useful for their businesses, a slight decrease from 91% in 2016.
• Developers: 45% are active in the Industry sector, up 18% from 2016, while the "Other" sector decreased by 14%.
• Key Applications: Training, maintenance, assemblage, production, logistics, and healthcare are the most common applications for VR/AR.
• User Case: Océ / Canon uses VR/AR for training service technicians on machines in development, offering benefits such as reduced costs, 24/7 availability, and enhanced efficiency.

6. Developer Case

• BlueTea, a Dutch software company, developed VirtualStudio®, a tool that enables the creation of smart 3D models for training and simulation.
• This tool helps in developing virtual training scenarios and simulating processes efficiently.

7. Market Forecast and Trends

• The VR hardware market is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated 20-fold increase from 2015 to 2021.
• Software market growth is also expected, though projections are uncertain due to inconsistent definitions.
• The most promising sectors for VR/AR growth are entertainment, healthcare, and engineering.
• Despite some success in 2016, VR revenue fell short of projections, with only 65% of the expected revenue realized.

8. Conclusion

The VR/AR market is still in its early stages, similar to the Internet in 1995. While there are promising developments and applications, the market is hindered by a lack of compelling content, limited infrastructure, and the "horseless carriage syndrome." However, with continued investment and innovation, the market is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, especially in the B2B space. The report emphasizes the importance of clear definitions and standardized data to better understand and predict market trends.