20160202-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_26页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive market update for the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It includes strategic insights, sector analysis, company results, key indices, and investment recommendations.
Main Points
China Strategy
- H-shares Valuation: European investors are turning positive on H-shares, which trade at 6.4x 2016F PE.
- Investment Recommendation: Focus on consumer spending, Macau gaming, and IPPs due to their attractive dividend yields (8–9%).
- Monetary Policy: PBOC is targeting interest rates rather than the exchange rate, and domestic rates have fallen despite CNY and CNH volatility.
- Economic Outlook: The Chinese economy is expected to stabilize in 2Q16, with the PMI as a reliable indicator.
- Key Concerns: Rising TSF (total social financing) to GDP ratio and potential for ZIRP and QE due to economic headwinds.
- Sector Ratings:
- City Gas Distribution: OVERWEIGHT
- Renewable Energy: OVERWEIGHT
- IPPs: MARKET WEIGHT
- Power Equipment, Coal, Oilfield Services: UNDERWEIGHT
Indonesia
- XL Axiata (EXCL IJ):
- 4Q15 Results: EBITDA margin showed an uptrend, with data revenue growth of 20.4% yoy.
- Key Highlights: Data usage increased 139% yoy, smartphone penetration reached 42%, and the company plans a rights issue to strengthen its balance sheet.
- Investment Recommendation: Maintain BUY, with a target price of Rp4,500.
- Stock Catalysts: Expansion of high-value subscribers and continued growth in mobile revenue.
Malaysia
- Market Outlook: Weak follow-through buying is expected after the recent market rally, and the strategy remains defensive.
- Banking Sector: Loans growth has moderated, while deposit growth trails at 1.8% vs. 7.9% for loans, leading to elevated funding costs.
- Company Update: WCT Holdings (WCTHG MK) is maintained at BUY with a target of RM2.05.
Singapore
- SIA Engineering (SIE SP): SELL recommendation due to declining engine contribution, with a target of S$3.36.
- Earnings Outlook: Strong results in 3QFY16, but concerns about the impact of falling oil prices on renewable energy and city gas sectors.
Thailand
- E for L Aim (EFORL TB): Maintain BUY due to expected high earnings growth from 2016 onwards.
- True Corporation (TRUE TB): Downgraded to SELL due to announced capital increase plan.
Key Indices (as of 02 February 2016)
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 16449.2 | (0.1) | 3.6 | (5.6) | (5.6) |
| S&P 500 | 1939.4 | (0.0) | 3.3 | (5.1) | (5.1) |
| FTSE 100 | 6060.1 | (0.4) | 3.1 | (2.9) | (2.9) |
| AS30 | 5094.3 | 0.7 | 2.5 | (4.7) | (4.7) |
| CSI 300 | 2901.0 | (1.5) | (7.3) | (22.2) | (22.2) |
| FSSTI | 2602.4 | (1.0) | 0.8 | (9.7) | (9.7) |
| HSCEI | 8144.9 | (1.2) | (0.3) | (15.7) | (15.7) |
| HSI | 19595.5 | (0.4) | 1.3 | (10.6) | (10.6) |
| JCI | 4624.6 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| KLCI | 1667.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 | (1.5) | (1.5) |
| KOSPI | 1924.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 | (1.9) | (1.9) |
| Nikkei 225 | 17865.2 | 2.0 | 4.4 | (6.1) | (6.1) |
| SET | 1297.3 | (0.3) | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| TWSE | 8157.0 | 0.1 | 4.2 | (2.2) | (2.2) |
| BDI | 314 | (0.9) | (11.3) | (34.3) | (34.3) |
| CPO | 2326 | (0.9) | 2.0 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| Brent Crude | 34 | (5.3) | 11.7 | (8.6) | (8.6) |
Top Picks
BUY
- Beijing Capital (694 HK): Target Price: 11.40, Potential Upside: +61.9%
- ICBC (1398 HK): Target Price: 7.60, Potential Upside: +90.0%
- Bank BJB (BJBR J): Target Price: 1,140.00, Potential Upside: +30.3%
- DiGi.Com (DIGI MK): Target Price: 5.95, Potential Upside: +21.9%
- Maybank (MAY MK): Target Price: 10.00, Potential Upside: +16.6%
- Citiv Developments (CIT SP): Target Price: 10.86, Potential Upside: +51.0%
- DBS (DBS SP): Target Price: 22.34, Potential Upside: +62.1%
- Kasikornbank (KBANK TB): Target Price: 192.00, Potential Upside: +14.3%
- PTT (PTT TB): Target Price: 340.00, Potential Upside: +41.7%
SELL
- SIA Engineering (SIE SP): Target Price: 3.30, Potential Downside: -3.2%
- UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target Price: 6.00, Potential Downside: -14.4%
- Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Target Price: 0.88, Potential Downside: -41.3%
Key Assumptions
| Country/Region | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Japan | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Singapore | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Malaysia | 6.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Thailand | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| China | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
| Indicator | 2015 | 2016F | 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (Average) | 53.60 | 54 | 62 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2,168 | 2,500 | 2,600 |
Corporate Events
- MAL Utilities Analyst Presentation: Kuala Lumpur, 3 Feb
- Singapore Airlines Luncheon: Singapore, 5 Feb
- Indo Telcos Analyst Presentation: Singapore, 18 Feb
- Asean Property and REITs Analyst Presentation: Kuala Lumpur, 18–19 Feb
- Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Roadshow: Shanghai, 23–24 Feb
Investment Highlights
- Consumer Spending: Focus on travel, media, autos, and insurance.
- Dividend Plays: Macau gaming and IPPs with yields of 8–9%.
- Oil Price Impact: Expected rebound in oil prices could benefit industrial and renewable energy sectors.
- Valuation Opportunities: Utilities are at trough valuations, with many trading at -2SD or historical lows.
Analyst Contact
- Mun Hon Tham: +852 2236 6799, munhon.tham@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Lauren Jiang: +852 2236 6798, lauren.jiang@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Jonathan Koh, CFA: +65 6590 6620, jonathankoh@uobkayhian.com
Summary
The document outlines a positive outlook for the Chinese market, emphasizing consumer spending and dividend yield sectors. It also provides updates on Indonesia's XL Axiata, Malaysia's banking sector, and Singapore's SIA Engineering. Key indices show mixed performance, with H-shares and oil prices being major factors. Investment recommendations are based on valuations, earnings growth, and macroeconomic trends.
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