20211025-招银国际-快手-W-01024.HK-3Q21E_on_track,_with_attractive_valuation_4页_849kb

报告摘要

Kuaishou (1024 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

CMB International Securities has issued an equity research update on Kuaishou, highlighting its expected performance for 3Q21E and full-year forecasts for FY21E and FY22E. The report indicates that Kuaishou is on track to deliver solid results, with better-than-expected user metrics and margin improvements. The company's valuation is considered attractive, with a P/S ratio of 3.4x FY22E, which is 50% lower than Bilibili's.

Main Points

3Q21E Performance Outlook

Revenue: Expected to grow by 30% YoY, slightly below the consensus.
Live Streaming: Expected to decline by 5% YoY, but show sequential growth.
Online Marketing: Expected to increase by 72% YoY, driven by strong performance.
E-commerce: Expected to rise by 40% YoY, contributing 25% to total revenue.
DAU/MAU: Expected to increase by 18% and 12% YoY, respectively, due to summer holiday seasonality, Olympic events, and improved user acquisition efficiency.
Time Spent and Engagement: Anticipated to rise due to the same factors.
Adj. NPM: Expected to improve to -30% (from -35%), reflecting better S&M efficiency.

Full-Year Forecasts

Revenue: Full-year forecast remains unchanged, with a slight increase in margin.
Margin Improvement: Full-year margin is raised by 1.5/0.5ppts in FY21/22E.
Target Price: HK$136, up from the previous TP of HK$110, implying a 33.3% upside from the current price of HK$102.
Adj. Net Loss: Estimated at RMB6.0bn, better than the consensus of RMB7.2bn.

Key Financial Metrics

Revenue Growth

FY19A: 39,120 RMB mn
FY20A: 58,776 RMB mn
FY21E: 80,115 RMB mn
FY22E: 107,199 RMB mn
FY23E: 135,463 RMB mn
YoY Growth: 92.7% (FY19A), 50.2% (FY20A), 36.3% (FY21E), 33.8% (FY22E), 26.4% (FY23E)

P/S Ratio

FY19A: 9.3x
FY20A: 6.2x
FY21E: 4.5x
FY22E: 3.4x
FY23E: 2.7x

Shareholding Structure

Tencent: 21.3%
5Y Capital: 16.5%
DCM LP: 8.6%

Stock Performance

1-Month: 0.3% (Absolute), -6.6% (Relative)
3-Months: -28.8% (Absolute), -25.5% (Relative)
6-Months: -59.2% (Absolute), -55.1% (Relative)

Analyst Recommendations

Rating: BUY (Maintain)
Target Price: HK$136
Up/Downside: +33.3%

Market Position and Strategy

User Expansion: Focus on domestic market in 2H21E, with S&M strategy driven by ROI.
Monetization: Ads and e-commerce are expected to drive revenue growth, while live streaming and education/game verticals may be weaker.
E-commerce GMV/Rev: Expected to grow by 68% and 40% YoY, respectively, with a take rate of 1%.
Gross Margin: Projected to increase from 42.5% to 42.6% in 3Q21E, with a trend of improvement over time.

Financial Summary Highlights

Operating Profit: Expected to be negative in 3Q21E, but the company is on track to meet its full-year revenue targets.
Adj. Net Profit: Expected to be RMB6.0bn, better than the consensus of RMB7.2bn.
Gross Profit: Expected to be RMB34,163 mn, with a slight YoY decline in gross margin.

Key Ratios

Live Streaming Revenue Share: 36.9% (FY21E), decreasing to 20.4% (FY23E).
Online Marketing Services Revenue Share: 54.6% (FY21E), increasing to 67.7% (FY23E).
Adj. Net Margin: Expected to improve from -29.6% (FY21E) to -8.9% (FY23E).
ROE: Expected to be 21.5% (FY21E), decreasing to 10.0% (FY23E).

Risk and Disclaimer

The report is for informational purposes only and not tailored to individual investors.
CMBIS is not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information.
The information is based on publicly available data and is subject to change.
There may be conflicts of interest due to CMBIS's investment banking relationships with the issuers.

Conclusion

Kuaishou is expected to maintain its revenue trajectory for the full year, with improved margin performance and user engagement. Despite challenges in certain verticals, the company's strong e-commerce and advertising growth are anticipated to offset these. The report recommends maintaining a BUY rating with a target price of HK$136, emphasizing the company's attractive valuation and growth potential.

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