20230424-招银国际-快手-W-01024.HK-Stronger_1Q23E_on_better_ecommerce___LS_7页_906kb

报告摘要

Kuaishou (1024 HK) Equity Research Summary

Overview

This report provides an update on Kuaishou's equity analysis as of April 24, 2023. The analyst certification and important disclosures are on the last page. The review highlights key financial metrics, business performance, and future outlook.

Analyst Recommendation and Key Findings

Rating: BUY, maintained at HK$94 target price (up 93.4% from current price of HK$48.6).
1Q23E Forecast: Expect upbeat results with revenue growth of 17% YoY (revised up slightly) and narrowing net loss to RMB4.51 billion. User metrics like DAU are stable at 375 million.
Business Highlights: Strengthened e-commerce and livestreaming segments driving outperformance. Livestreaming revenue expected to grow 14% YoY, boosted by partnerships with agencies and hosts. E-commerce GMV resilient at +28% YoY, with higher take rates.
Revenue Projections:
- 1Q23E rev: +17% YoY (vs consensus +15%).
- FY23-25E revenue increased by 0.4-0.5%, with improved margins.
Catalysts: Group breakeven in 2Q23E and launch of online shopping mall channel.

Financial and Operational Data (from report)

Mkt Cap: HK$212.347 billion (data from Bloomberg).
Share Performance: 1-mth return -7.5%, 3-mth -30.1%.
Auditor: PwC.
Key Metrics:
- YE 2022 revenue: HK$94.183 billion (YoY +16.2%).
- 1Q23E adj. net margin: 1.1%, up from -5.8%.
- Gross margin target: 50.5% for FY23E.
Holding Structure: Tencent owns 19.0%, other funds investment.

Analyst Certification and Risks

Analysts certify views reflect personal opinions, no compensation ties to this report.
Risks include macro challenges, competition, and fluctuating returns. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Disclosure notes: No recent trading in the stock by analysts; potential conflicts of interest.

Detailed Forecast Highlights

Revenue Growth: Steady YoY increase driven by livestreaming and e-commerce; FY23-25E higher by 15.5-16.0% annually.
Margins: Expected improvement due to cost control, with adj. NPM higher by 0.1-0.9 ppts.
Comparison: TP-based on SOTP (Specialized Target Price) with multiple assigned at 3.3x P/S, above industry average.

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