20230330-招银国际-快手-W-01024.HK-A_solid_start_into_2023E_7页_907kb

报告摘要

Kuaishou (1024 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

Kuaishou (1024 HK) has delivered a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2022, with revenue growth and improved margins. The company is expected to maintain a solid start in 2023, driven by recovery in advertising revenue and continued growth in live streaming and e-commerce. Analysts from CMB International Global Markets have maintained their "BUY" rating and set the target price at HK$94, which is unchanged from the previous target price.

Main Points

4Q22 Performance

Revenue grew by 16% YoY, exceeding both consensus and previous estimates.
Net loss narrowed to RMB45mn, compared to -RMB303mn and -RMB247mn of consensus estimates.
Strong performance in ads (+14% YoY, 4% above estimate) and livestreaming (+14% YoY, 6% above estimate).
E-commerce GMV increased by 30% YoY, aligning with expectations.

2023E Outlook

1Q23E revenue is forecasted to grow by 15% YoY, surpassing the consensus of 10%.
Adjusted net profit is expected to be -RMB502mn, compared to -RMB1.3bn of consensus.
Ads are forecasted to grow by 15% in 1Q23E and 20% in FY23E.
Livestreaming is expected to grow by 12% in 1Q23E and 6% in FY23E, showing stronger momentum.
E-commerce is projected to grow by high-twenties YoY in 1Q23E and FY23E, despite macroeconomic uncertainties and competition.

Margin Improvements

Margin expansion is attributed to disciplined S&M spending and narrowing losses in overseas operations.
GPM is forecasted to be 46% in 1Q23E and FY23E.
S&M expenses are expected to remain flat YoY in FY23E.
Adj. net margin is projected to rise from -0.9% to 1.0% in FY23E.

Valuation and Target Price

SOTP-based TP is maintained at HK$94, implying a 3.3x FY23E P/S multiple.
The TP is slightly above the industry average of 2.6x P/S, reflecting confidence in Kuaishou's growth and margin outlook.
The multiple assigned is unchanged, with slightly higher revenue to offset FX changes.

Key Information

Revenue Growth

FY21A: RMB81,082mn
FY22A: RMB94,183mn
FY23E: RMB108,212mn
FY24E: RMB122,005mn
FY25E: RMB136,669mn
YoY growth: 37.9%, 16.2%, 14.9%, 12.7%, 12.0%

Adj. Net Profit

FY21A: -RMB18,852mn
FY22A: -RMB5,751mn
FY23E: RMB1,076mn
FY24E: RMB5,262mn
FY25E: RMB11,273mn
YoY growth: NA, NA, 389%, 114%

Adj. EPS (RMB)

FY21A: -4.7
FY22A: -1.3
FY23E: 0.4
FY24E: 1.4
FY25E: 3.2
YoY growth: NA, NA, NA, 389%, 114%

P/E and P/S Multiples

FY23E P/E: 199
FY23E P/S: 2.0
FY24E P/S: 1.8
FY25E P/S: 1.6

Shareholding Structure

Tencent: 20.5%
Morningside Venture Cap: 15.8%
DCM LP: 6.8%

Market Performance

1-month: +2.2%
3-month: -20.1%
6-month: -1.3%

Analysts

Sophie Huang, Eason Xu, Saiyi He, Ye Tao, Wentao Lu

Key Ratios

Operating margin: -40.3% (FY21A), -18.0% (FY22A), -10.1% (FY23E), -5.3% (FY24E), +0.2% (FY25E)
Adj. net margin: -23.3% (FY21A), -6.1% (FY22A), +1.0% (FY23E), +4.3% (FY24E), +8.2% (FY25E)
Effective tax rate: -1.3% (FY21A), 9.2% (FY22A), 0.9% (FY23E), 15.0% (FY24E), 15.0% (FY25E)

CMBIGM Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months
SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months
NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM
OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Conclusion

Kuaishou is well-positioned to benefit from the post-reopening recovery in advertising and continued growth in live streaming and e-commerce. The company's strong Q4 performance, margin improvement, and positive outlook for 2023E have led to a "BUY" rating and an unchanged target price of HK$94. The TP implies a slightly premium multiple compared to the industry average, reflecting confidence in its future growth and margin expansion potential.

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