世界银行-估算印度尼西亚的增值税（VAT）和企业所得税（CIT）缺口（英）-2025_42页_1mb

VAT and CIT Tax Gaps in Indonesia (2016-2021):
The VAT and CIT tax gaps averaged 6.4% of GDP (IDR 944 trillion) between 2016 and 2021, with non-compliance accounting for 58% of forgone revenue. VAT compliance gaps were high compared to regional peers, peaking at 50.7% of VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL) in 2020 due to COVID-19 impacts, while CIT gaps were lower but still elevated.

Key Drivers of Gaps:

• Non-compliance: Frequent bankruptcies, underreporting, deferrals, and informality contribute significantly.
• Policy gaps: High VAT/CIT thresholds (IDR 4.8 billion) and exemptions for essential goods (e.g., food, education, health) led to forgone revenue. VAT policy gaps increased due to rising demand for non-taxable services, while CIT policy gaps decreased from threshold adjustments.

Recent Trends:

• Compliance gaps improved in 2022–2023, linked to robust GDP growth and MoF reforms like the 2021 Tax Harmonization Law.
• Alternative regimes (e.g., Alternative Final Tax for small businesses) reduce effective tax rates, incentivizing evasion—these could be reformed to broaden VAT/CIT coverage.

Recommendations:

• Lower thresholds and prohibit bunching to reduce evasion.
• Strengthen taxpayer compliance via digital tools.
• Reassess exemptions to balance revenue with social objectives.

Implications:
The large gaps constrain government revenue, hindering fiscal space for public services. Addressing both compliance and policy gaps through data-driven reforms is critical for improving Indonesia's tax system.