2024-09-09-未来能源研究所-美国气候政策观点（英）_21页_5mb

Summary of CLIMATE INSIGHTS 2024: American Climate Policy Opinions

Core Content

The Climate Insights 2024 report, authored by Jon A. Krosnick and Bo Maclinnis, examines American public opinion on climate change mitigation policies. Conducted by Stanford University and Resources for the Future (RFF), the survey involved 1,000 randomly sampled American adults between October 16, 2023, and February 23, 2024. The report provides insights into the public's preferences for various policies and their economic and political implications.

Main Policy Preferences

Most Popular Policies

• Taxing imported emissions: 84% of Americans favor a special tax on foreign goods that emit more greenhouse gases than comparable U.S. products.
• Assisting with job transitions: 78% support government spending on job training for those affected by the shift from fossil fuels to renewables.
• Filling abandoned oil wells: 76% favor government spending to fill abandoned oil wells that emit greenhouse gases.
• Energy efficiency mandates/tax breaks: Two-thirds (67%) of Americans support government efforts to improve energy efficiency through tax breaks or mandates for cars, appliances, and buildings.

Moderately Popular Policies

• Import taxes tied to emissions: 84% support, making it the most popular policy surveyed.
• Sequestering carbon: 63% support government tax breaks to reduce emissions from burning coal.
• Consumer incentives for emissions reduction: 59% prefer "carrots" (incentives) over "sticks" (penalties) to reduce emissions.

Least Popular Policies

• Nuclear power tax breaks: Only 47% support this policy, the least popular among those surveyed.
• All-electric vehicle tax breaks: 46% support, a record low, down from 60% in 2015.
• Taxes on consumers: 15% support increasing taxes on electricity, and 28% on gasoline, both showing significant declines from 2020.

Economic Effects of Mitigation Policies

• Public perception of economic impact: 36% believe climate action will hurt the U.S. economy, a statistically significant increase from 2020 (29%). 44% believe it will help the economy.
• Job impacts: 27% believe climate action will reduce national jobs, similar to 2020. 35% believe it will increase jobs. At the state level, 28% believe it will reduce jobs, and 32% believe it will increase jobs.
• Personal economic impact: 54% believe mitigation efforts will not affect their personal finances. 36% believe their wealth will decrease, a significant increase from 2020. 8% believe their wealth will increase.

Voting Behavior and Climate Policy

• Candidate statements influence voting: A "green" statement (supporting climate action) increased the likelihood of Americans voting for a candidate by 57%, a decline from 65% in 2020.
• Partisan differences: Democrats are most supportive of green policies (83% more likely to vote for a green candidate), while Republicans are least supportive (23%).
• Not-green statements: These reduce support for a candidate, with 63% of Americans less likely to vote for a candidate who denies climate change, similar to 2020.
• Independents are most affected: They are more responsive to candidate positions on climate change, with green positions helping and not-green positions hurting.

Key Findings

• Public support for mitigation: A majority of Americans support policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as energy efficiency improvements and carbon sequestration.
• Shift in support: Some policies, like tax breaks for all-electric vehicles and consumer taxes, have seen significant declines in public support since 2020.
• Economic concerns: While some economic concerns exist, the majority of Americans do not perceive climate action as harmful to the economy or their personal finances.
• Political influence: Candidate positions on climate change significantly influence voter behavior, with green positions generally being more favorable.

Methodology and Context

• The survey uses both "global warming" and "climate change" interchangeably, as empirical studies show they are interpreted similarly by respondents.
• The report is part of a long-running series of surveys initiated in 1997, tracking public opinion over time.
• The findings are accompanied by an interactive data tool for further analysis.

Conclusion

The report highlights a generally supportive public stance toward climate change mitigation, despite some declines in support for certain policies. It challenges the notion that economic growth and environmental protection are inherently at odds, showing that many Americans believe climate action will benefit the economy. Candidate positions on climate change play a critical role in shaping voter behavior, suggesting that climate policy can be a key tool in electoral strategy.

References

• Villar and Krosnick (2011) on the equivalence of "global warming" and "climate change" interpretations.
• Baumol and Oates (1971), Climate Leadership Council (2019), Marron and Toder (2014), Montgomery (1972), and World Bank (2017) on carbon pricing and taxation.
• Cassidy (2023), Gross (2021), and Gallup (2024) for related studies and context.