未来能源研究所-利用国家气候政策提高能源可负担性（英）-2025.8_6页_572kb

Promoting Energy Affordability Using State Climate Policy

This report by Nicholas Roy and Dallas Burtraw examines how state governments can address energy affordability and climate policy simultaneously. Energy affordability is a national concern, exacerbated by rising electricity prices due to inflation, electrification, and federal policy changes like the repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which reduces support for clean energy investments. States can implement carbon pricing (e.g., cap-and-invest programs) in the electricity sector and use revenues to fund rebates or other measures that lower residential electricity costs.

Key Findings from Modeling

• State-level carbon pricing without revenue redistribution increases electricity prices by an average of 9 percent in the eight modeled leadership states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Carolina).
• Including revenue share for consumer rebates reduces prices further. Full carbon pricing with rebate revenue cutting electricity costs lowers prices by about 6 percent on average in these states.
• The IRA repeal could lead to higher electricity prices (up to 10 percent by 2035) without federal intervention, while clean energy investments might shift to fossil fuels due to uncertainty.
• Benefits of carbon pricing include environmental improvements (carbon emission reductions, air quality enhancements), economic gains (fewer hidden costs, job creation), and affordability support through targeted programs.
• States can adapt policies to address affordability, such as adjusting rebate sizes or frequencies based on consumer needs.

States have tools to shape their electricity markets, but policies must consider variations in energy demand and net imports.