RFF-未来资源研究所：2020年气候洞察：政策与政治（英文）-2020.9-37页_7mb

Summary of Climate Insights 2020: Policies and Politics

Core Content

The Climate Insights 2020 report, authored by Jon A. Krosnick and Bo Maclinnis, examines American public opinion on climate change mitigation policies and their economic implications. Conducted by Stanford University and Resources for the Future (RFF), the survey includes 999 American adults and covers a range of topics including public support for government action, policy preferences, and perceptions of economic impacts.

The report highlights that despite the ongoing public health, economic, and social challenges, a majority of Americans remain supportive of climate change mitigation efforts. It explores how people evaluate these policies based on sociotropic (benefits to society) or pocketbook (personal financial interests) motivations, and how these views influence support for specific policies.

Main Findings

Extremely Popular Policies

1. Shifting Electricity Generation to Renewable Power

   • 83% of Americans support government efforts to shift electricity generation from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
   • This support has remained consistent since 2006, with slight variations in question wording but no significant change in overall sentiment.

2. Increasing Energy Efficiency of Products

   • 71% support increasing the fuel efficiency of automobiles.
   • 71% support increasing the energy efficiency of appliances.
   • 75% support increasing the energy efficiency of new buildings.
   • Public support for these policies has been steady since 2012, with peaks in 2006 and 2007.

Moderately Popular Policies

1. Carbon Pricing Policies

   • Carbon pricing, which includes carbon taxes and cap-and-trade programs, is supported by a majority of Americans, though less so than energy efficiency or renewable energy policies.
   • A carbon tax with a dividend (e.g., $200, $600, or $800 annually) still garners around 62% support, with the dividend amount not significantly affecting opinions.
   • Cap-and-trade and cap-and-dividend policies are also moderately popular, with 61% favoring cap-and-dividend in 2020, slightly lower than in 2013 (65%) and 2015 (62%).

2. Carbon Sequestration

   • 63% of Americans support reducing emissions by sequestering carbon from coal burning.
   • This level of support has remained steady over the past 11 years.

Least Popular Policies

1. Nuclear Power Tax Breaks

   • Only 37% of Americans support tax breaks for new nuclear power plants, the lowest level since the survey began.
   • Support dropped significantly after the 2011 Fukushima disaster and has fluctuated since, with a notable decline since 2018 due to rising costs and cheaper alternatives.

2. Consumer Taxes for Fossil Fuel Reduction

   • Only 28% support increasing taxes on electricity and 43% support increasing taxes on gasoline to reduce fossil fuel consumption.
   • These figures are the highest recorded for this survey but still do not reach majority support.

Economic Effects of Mitigation Policies

• A majority of Americans believe that climate change mitigation efforts will not harm the national or state economy, with 47% believing it will help the national economy.
• Public perception of climate action’s economic impact has remained largely unchanged over the last decade, with 23% believing it will hurt the national economy and 29% believing it will hurt the state economy.
• Fewer believe climate action will affect their personal wealth or job prospects, with only 11% thinking it will reduce their wealth and 17% believing it will improve their chances of getting a good-paying job.

2020 Federal Economic Stimulus Packages

• 66% of Americans support including green investments in future federal stimulus packages to create new jobs and reduce future global warming.
• The most popular specific goals for such investments include:
  • Investing in new inventions to produce cleaner electricity (61%)
  • Planting large numbers of trees to absorb and store greenhouse gases (59%)
  • Helping companies develop smaller, longer-lasting batteries (56%)
  • Strengthening oil and gas pipelines to reduce leaks and pollution (54%)
  • Installing charging equipment in parking lots for electric vehicles (51%)
  • Developing cars and trucks that run entirely on electricity (45%)

Key Insights and Expert Commentary

• Sociotropic vs. Pocketbook Reasoning: Americans are more influenced by sociotropic reasoning than pocketbook reasoning when evaluating climate policies.
• Carbon Pricing: While economists generally support carbon pricing as the most efficient way to reduce emissions, it remains a politically challenging policy.
• Public Education: There is a need for better public understanding of how carbon pricing can reduce emissions and its economic implications.
• Green Jobs: Public perception of climate action as a job creator or destroyer is not strongly aligned with either side, suggesting the need for more balanced communication.

Conclusion

The report underscores that public support for climate change mitigation policies remains strong, with a preference for energy efficiency, renewable energy, and carbon sequestration. While carbon pricing is less popular, it still has significant support. Americans are more concerned with the overall impact on the nation and society rather than personal economic consequences. The findings suggest that the public is generally open to green investments, particularly in the context of economic stimulus, indicating a potential opportunity for policy makers to advance climate action with broad public backing.