20150702-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_312kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - July 2, 2015

Core Content Overview

This document is a financial summary report dated July 2, 2015, highlighting key market performance metrics, analyst insights, and industry developments in the Philippines. It provides data on stock indices, market turnover, and specific stock performances, along with analyses from various sectors including Banking, Property, Conglomerates, Telecoms, Utilities, and Oil. It also includes a valuation summary and a forecast for the upcoming earnings and market performance.

Key Market Indicators

Indicator	Value	Change
PSEi	7,575.15	0.14%
Turnover (PHPm)	6,461.00	-39.52%
PLDT ADR (USD)	62.32	0.03%
PLDT ADR (PHP)	2,811.26	-0.03%
Ave interbank rate	2.53	-3.12 bps
PHP/USD rate	45.07	0.14%

Analysts

The report lists several analysts and their contact details from Maybank ATR Kim Eng:

Luz Lorenzo - Head of Research / Economist
- Phone: (632) 849 8836
- Email: luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com
Ramon Adviento
- Phone: (63) 28498845
- Email: ramon_adviento@maybank-atrke.com
Michael Bengson
- Phone: (63) 28498840
- Email: michael_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Rommel Rodrigo
- Phone: (632) 849 8839
- Email: rommel_rodrigo@maybank-atrke.com
Lovell Sarreal
- Phone: (632) 849 8841
- Email: lovell_sarreal@maybank-atrke.com
Katherine Tan
- Phone: (632) 849 8843
- Email: kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com

Top Idea: Banking Sector

Expect stronger loan growth
- Loan growth slowed in May due to reduced lending for production activities, but consumer loans continued to grow.
- Production activity is expected to strengthen due to improved economic growth and favorable credit environment.
- Maintain BUY ratings on BDO, MBT, SECB, RCB, and EW.

Market Talk

Property

SMPH and ALI JV win Cebu SRP Lot
- Won bid for a 26-hectare lot at PHP10.0b, with a cost per sqm of PHP38.5K, which is at the high end of the market range.
- Positive for future collaboration and development projects like Lake Shore and Reclamation.

Conglomerates

DMC issues official statement for Torre De Manila
- Clarified that the permit is for a 49-storey condominium, not 7-storeys as rumored.
- Stated that the project does not violate heritage laws or obstruct Rizal monument view.
AEV raises PHP615m from treasury sale
- Sold 10.6m shares at PHP58 apiece, totaling PHP614.8m.
- Part of a 50m treasury shares plan approved in August 2014.
- Remaining treasury shares authorized to be sold: 17.61m.

Telecoms

GLO receives SEC approval for new holding company
- Globe Telecom's holding company, Globe Capital Venture Holdings Inc., will consolidate strategic businesses.

Utilities

PNOC-EC discovers major gas well in Mangosteen project
- Recoverable resource potential: 71b cubic feet of natural gas.
- Expected to contribute 60MW to the Luzon power grid for over 15 years.
DOE re-evaluates Bat-Man transmission pipeline
- Lacks a middle offtaker; PNOC seeks private partner through bidding.
Malaya Thermal contract up for bids
- PSALM will auction the 1-year OMSC for the 650MW plant.
- Budget allocated: PHP457.28m.
- Non-refundable bidding fee: PHP50,000.

Oil

Euro 4 fuel standard begins
- Effective from July 1, 2015.
- All new vehicles by 2016 must comply with Euro 4 standards.
- Oil companies must ensure availability of Euro 4 fuels by July 1, 2015.

Consumer

CNPF earmarks PHP820m capex for 2015
- Higher than last year's PHP540m.
- PHP450m allocated for cold storage in General Santos City.
- Aims for 10-15% annual revenue and profit growth over next 2-3 years.

Mining

APX doubles 2015 capex to PHP1.9b
- Focus on gold production and mine development.
- PHP150m required to restart Itogon mine.

Economy

Infrastructure spending up 40% in April
- YoY increase to PHP23.3b.
- Mainly due to higher fund disbursements from DPWH.
- Government expects continued acceleration in spending.

Banking Sector Analysis

Analyst: Katherine Tan
Rating: NEUTRAL (unchanged)
Key Points:

Outstanding loans grew 14.5% YoY in May, the slowest since Aug 2013.
Loan growth to production sectors slowed due to weak real GDP and strong capital market fundraising.
Consumer loan growth has been upward for three months, with mortgages and auto loans as drivers.
Quarterly data including thrift banks show similar trends.
Non-consumer loan growth has been declining over the past four quarters.
Outlook for GDP growth to accelerate in the coming quarters.
Full-year growth forecast: 6.4%.
Maintain BUY on BDO, MBT, SECB, EW, and RCB.

Valuation Summary

Stock	Mkt Cap (USDm)	Rating	Price (LC)	TP (LC)	Upside (%)	P/E (16E)	P/E (17E)	P/B (16E)	P/B (17E)	Dividend Yield (16E)	Dividend Yield (17E)
BDO Unibank	8,600.8	Buy	108.30	123.00	14	12.9	10.9	1.8	1.6	1.1	1.1
Bank of Phil Islands	8,217.2	Hold	94.30	101.00	7	15.4	13.2	2.1	1.9	1.9	1.9
Metrobank	6,594.5	Buy	93.50	105.00	12	15.0	12.4	1.5	1.3	1.1	1.1
Security Bank	2,206.0	Buy	165.00	200.00	21	12.8	11.8	1.7	1.5	1.2	1.2
Philippine National Bank	1,856.1	Hold	67.00	77.00	15	16.2	14.6	0.9	0.8	0.0	0.0
China Banking Corp	1,728.2	Hold	45.40	51.00	12	12.3	10.9	1.3	1.2	2.2	2.2
Union Bank of Phil	1,427.1	Hold	60.80	77.00	27	7.2	6.4	1.1	1.0	3.5	3.5
Rizal Comm Banking	1,213.9	Buy	39.10	62.00	59	9.1	7.9	0.8	0.8	1.5	1.5
East West Banking	645.4	Buy	19.40	29.00	49	9.4	7.5	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.0
Philippine Business Bank	175.9	Hold	18.48	18.00	(3)	12.4	11.0	1.0	0.9	0.0	0.0

The Week Ahead

July 3: EEI Corporation
July 9: Top Frontier Investment Holdings, Inc.
Abacore Capital Holdings, Inc. – Annual Stockholders' Meeting

Earnings and Valuations Table (As of 1 July 2015)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rating	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Gearing (%)	ROA (%)
BDO	108.30	123.00	14	BUY	2014	22,466	6.27	0.9	17.3	2.10	1.9	48.56	2.2	1.3	13.5
BDO	108.30	123.00	14	BUY	2015F	25,723	7.18	14.5	15.4	2.70	1.0	53.71	1.9	1.3	14.0
BDO	108.30	123.00	14	BUY	2016F	30,147	8.42	17.2	12.9	2.10	1.9	60.93	1.8	1.3	14.7
... (other stocks listed in detail) ...

Summary of Key Sectors

Banks: Loan growth slowed in production sectors, but consumer loan growth is expected to strengthen.
Property: SMPH and ALI win major land bid, signaling collaboration and future projects.
Conglomerates: DMC clarifies permit details; AEV raises funds through treasury shares.
Telecoms: GLO receives SEC approval for new holding company.
Utilities: PNOC-EC discovers major gas reserves; DOE re-evaluates Bat-Man pipeline.
Oil: Euro 4 fuel standard begins, impacting vehicle and fuel compliance.
Consumer: CNPF increases capex for growth; APX doubles capex for mine development.
Economy: Infrastructure spending accelerates, with government support for growth targets.