20140526-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_12页_337kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - 26 May 2014

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the financial performance and market activities of various companies, focusing on the conglomerates and consumer sectors. It includes financial data, analyst insights, and upcoming events for the stock market.

Main Points

Financial Performance Overview

PSEi: Closed at 6,811.33, down 0.28%.
Turnover: PHP7,666.97, up 13.48%.
PLDT ADR: PHP67.18 (USD) and PHP2,933.75 (PHP), with 0.55% and 0.57% changes respectively.
Ave interbank rate: 2.00%, down 3.13 bps.
PHP/USD rate: 43.62, up 0.21%.

Analysts

Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
Analysts: Laura Dy-Liacco, Rommel Rodrigo, Lovell Sarreal, Katherine Tan, Ramon Adviento

Top Idea

GTCAP (PHP855.00): Recovery likely from weak 1Q14. Maintain HOLD with a target price of PHP875, equivalent to 15.0x 2014F PER. Upside potential is limited.

Key Market Developments

Banks

UBP: Plans to raise PHP10b in Tier 2 bonds within the year to boost capital under Basel III rules.
MBT: 1Q14 net income dropped 50% to PHP5.7b, mainly due to lower treasury gains. Core profit contribution is estimated at PHP662m, which is 17% of forecast. The company is expected to recover from the weak performance in 1Q14.

Property

ALI: Plans to build Alviera in Porac, Pampanga, similar to Nuvali. Expected to be a regional growth center.
RLC: Go Hotel Tacloban resumed operations after typhoon Yolanda, with full operations of Robinsons Place Tacloban expected in June.

Consumer

PGOLD: Launches a program to help reseller members convert sari-sari stores to mini-marts. The project is expected to start in 3Q14, with pilot projects already underway. This could have a net positive impact on PGOLD from higher sales.

Conglomerates

AC's GNPower Mariveles: Expansion of the coal plant is expected to start this year. AC Energy is selecting the EPC contractor for the project. Commercial operation is targeted by the end of 2014 for unit 2 and 2015 for unit 1.
GTCAP: Acquired additional stakes in Toyota dealers and insurance companies, contributing to its earnings. One-off gains from intercompany sales and ROPA are detailed.

Financial Highlights

GTCAP 1Q14 Net Income: PHP1.7b, down 56% YoY.
MBT: PHP1.4b, down 50% YoY, but core profit contribution is estimated at PHP662m.
GBP: PHP224.9m, down 42% YoY due to administrative price cap and technical issues.
FedLand: PHP423.7m, up 83% YoY, driven by real estate sales and interest income.
Toyota Motor Philippines: PHP708m, up 34% YoY, with strong sales volume growth.

NAV and Valuation

GTCAP NAV per share: Revised to PHP874.31 (10% discount to NAV/sh).
Estimated fair value of investments: PHP169,325m, with breakdowns of each business unit's contribution.
Valuation methods: PBV, DCF, and PER are used for different units.

Earnings and Valuations Table (As of 23 May 2014)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rec	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Net Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	89.50	93.50	4	HOLD	2012	14,153	67.3	15.1	-	-	42.29	2.1	-	1.2	11.7
BPI	87.70	93.50	7	HOLD	2013	18,811	11.4	19.8	-	-	27.19	2.3	-	1.5	14.4
MBT	86.90	92.00	6	HOLD	2014	15,219	17.3	19.6	1.00	1.2	38.24	2.3	1.6	1.3	11.9
PNB	90.90	109.00	20	BUY	2014	5,432	10.9	12.7	51.60	21.1	140.43	1.7	3.6	2.0	14.2
PGOLD	41.10	50.00	22	BUY	2014	4,580	15.7	28.3	0.30	0.7	9.91	4.1	-	8.8	14.8

The Week Ahead

26 May: First Philippine Holdings Corporation, Anchor Land Holdings, Inc.
27 May: Philippine National Bank, Citystate Savings Bank, Inc., Manila Electric Company, Premiere Horizon Alliance Corporation.
28 May: Liberty Flour Mills, Inc., Rockwell Land Corporation, Benguet Corporation, Keppel Philippine Holdings, Inc.

Summary

GTCAP is expected to recover from weak 1Q14, with strong contributions from Toyota Motor Philippines and FedLand.
PGOLD is launching a program to convert sari-sari stores to mini-marts, which could have a positive impact on its sales.
UBP is raising capital to comply with Basel III rules.
ALI and RLC are expanding their real estate and hotel operations.
NAV and EPS forecasts are updated, with GTCAP maintaining a HOLD rating due to limited upside.
The report highlights the performance of various business units and their contribution to the overall earnings and valuation.