20140331-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_326kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - 31 March 2014

Core Content

This document is a financial report from Maybank ATR Kim Eng, dated 31 March 2014, covering market performance, analyst insights, and stock valuations. It includes data on stock indices, exchange rates, and detailed financial analysis of several companies, particularly focusing on GT Capital Holdings Inc (GTCAP).

Main Points

Market Overview

PSEi Index: Closed at 6,359.62, with a 0.70% increase.
Turnover: Reached PHP9,306.00 million, showing a decline of 29.90%.
PLDT ADR (USD): Closed at 61.05, with a -0.15% change.
PLDT ADR (PHP): Closed at 2,739.92, with a -0.50% change.
Ave interbank rate: Increased by -6.25 bps to 2.00.
PHP/USD rate: Stabilized at 45.00, with a -0.07% change.

Analysts

Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
Analysts: Laura Dy-Liacco, Rommel Rodrigo, Lovell Sarreal, Katherine Tan, Ramon Adviento

Top Idea: GTCAP (PHP790.00)

Rating: HOLD
Target Price (TP): PHP860.08
Reason: Based on a sum-of-parts valuation, the potential upside is less than 10%, which justifies the HOLD rating.
Valuation Method: A conglomerate discount of 10% is applied to the NAV per share of PHP955.64, resulting in a TP of PHP860.08.
Implied 2014F PER: 14.8x

GTCAP: Key Information

Diversified Conglomerate

Financials: Holds a 25.1% stake in Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co (MBT), the second-largest bank by asset size.
Insurance: Owns 32.3% of Philippine AXA Life Insurance Corp (AXA) and 100% of Charter Ping An Insurance Corp (CPAIC), both of which are the fourth largest in their respective markets.
Industrials: Operates Toyota Motor Philippines Inc (TMP) via a 51% ownership and Global Business Power Corp (GBP) via a 53.2% effective stake.
Real Estate: Owns Federal Land Inc (FedLand), a real-estate development company with a 40-year track record.

Strong Positioning and Synergies

Strategic Partnerships: GTCAP benefits from partnerships with global industry leaders, enhancing its business growth.
Financial Standing: A net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.41x allows for new acquisitions and growth opportunities.
Synergy Examples:
- Funding for TMP's vehicles and FedLand's real estate can be sourced through MBT.
- MBT’s extensive branch network can be used for cross-selling insurance services.
- Insurers can support the financial needs of TMP and FedLand.

Earnings Growth Projections

Earnings Growth (FY14-15): Estimated at 24% annually.
2014: Full earnings contribution from CPAIC.
2015: Expected 43% earnings growth from the new 82-MW clean coal-fired power plant in Toledo, Cebu.

Market Talk

Banks

BDO Unibank Inc: Credit rating upgraded to investment grade (baa3) by Moody's, citing improved asset quality, liquidity, and ability to withstand cyclical downturns.
BDO's Target Price: PHP88.00, with a 5% upside from the current price of PHP83.95.
BPI: Holds a HOLD rating, with a target price of PHP93.50, indicating a 10% upside.
MBT: Holds a HOLD rating, with a target price of PHP88.00, indicating a 13% upside.

Economy

Automatic Fare Collection PPP: The concession agreement for the LRT and MRT unified ticketing system is set to be signed on 31 March 2014.
Project Value: PHP1.7 billion.
Consortium: Includes Ayala Corp (AC - BUY) and Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPI - Under review).

The Week Ahead

31 March 2014: Col Financial Group, Inc.
4 April 2014: Integrated Micro-Electronics, Inc., Manila Water Corporation, Inc.
7 April 2014: Ayala Land, Inc.
Annual Stockholders' Meeting: Multiple companies are scheduled for this event.

Earnings and Valuations Table

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rec	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Net Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	83.95	88.00	5	BUY	2012	13,953	4.46	12.6	17.4	18.8	-	27.19	3.1	-	1.2	11.5
BPI	85.25	93.50	10	HOLD	2012	16,352	4.60	4.60	26.8	18.5	2.7	27.19	2.1	2.7	1.8	17.8
MBT	78.05	88.00	13	HOLD	2012	11,520	4.20	4.20	12.6	18.6	1.0	38.24	2.0	2.0	1.1	11.5
PNB	81.95	111.00	35	BUY	2012	4,652	7.02	7.02	0.4	11.7	1.4	58.04	1.4	1.4	1.4	12.8
etc.	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...

Key Takeaways

GTCAP is a diversified conglomerate with strong market positions in financials, industrials, and property.
The company's target price is based on NAV per share, with a 10% discount applied.
Earnings growth is expected to be 24% annually from FY14 to FY15.
The domestic economy is expected to continue growing, which is favorable for GTCAP's business units.
BDO has received a credit rating upgrade, indicating improved financial health.
The automatic fare collection PPP is set to be signed on 31 March 2014, involving Ayala Corp and MPI.