世界银行-2023年4月商品市场展望：价格下跌，几乎没有缓解（英）-2023.4-58页_2mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of global commodity market developments and forecasts for the year 2023 and 2024. It highlights the impact of geopolitical events, economic activity, and weather conditions on commodity prices. The report also includes a special focus on forecasting methods for industrial commodities.

Main Points

• Global Commodity Prices: Global commodity prices fell 14% in the first quarter of 2023, returning to levels roughly 30% below their June 2022 peak. Prices are expected to remain broadly unchanged for the rest of 2023 and into 2024, but still above pre-pandemic levels.
• Energy Prices: Energy prices dropped 20% in the first quarter of 2023, with Brent crude oil prices at $84 per barrel. Natural gas prices in Europe fell by about 53% in 2023, but are still three times higher than the 2015-19 average. Coal prices are forecast to fall 42% in 2023 and 23% in 2024.
• Agricultural Prices: Agricultural prices remained largely unchanged between the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, with food prices expected to fall by 8% in 2023 and 3% in 2024. Despite this, real food prices are still at their second-highest levels since 1975.
• Fertilizer Prices: Fertilizer prices reached an all-time high in 2022 but are projected to fall by 37% in 2023. They remain near the high levels of the 2008-09 food crisis.
• Metals and Minerals: The metals and minerals price index rose 10% in the first quarter of 2023 but is expected to fall by 8% in 2023 and 3% in 2024. Precious metals prices are forecast to increase by 6% in 2023 due to safe-haven demand and industrial demand.

Key Risks

• Upside Risks:
  • Disruptions in energy and metals supply due to trade restrictions.
  • Intensifying geopolitical tensions.
  • A stronger-than-anticipated recovery in China's industrial sector.
  • Adverse weather events.
• Downside Risk:
  • Disappointing global growth could lead to lower commodity prices.

Special Focus: Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices

• The report reviews 60 academic studies on forecasting methods for seven industrial commodities (oil and six industrial metals).
• Key Findings:
  • Futures prices often result in large forecast errors.
  • Multivariate time series models tend to outperform other model-based approaches.
  • Early studies suggest that machine learning techniques yield better forecasts than some traditional methods.
  • Incorporating commodity price dynamics and economic factors improves forecast accuracy.

Key Forecasts

Key Information

• The World Bank Commodity Price Index declined from its peak in June 2022, but remains above pre-pandemic levels.
• Energy markets have seen a significant drop in prices, particularly natural gas, due to improved supply and increased LNG imports.
• Fertilizer prices are still near record levels, driven by high input costs.
• Agricultural markets have experienced mixed performance, with grain prices falling and other food commodities rising.
• Metals and minerals have seen a short-lived price spike in January 2023, but are expected to decline in the coming year.
• Geopolitical tensions, weather conditions, and economic growth are key drivers of price volatility.
• Food insecurity is expected to affect over 349 million people globally in 2023, double the number from 2020.

Conclusion

Commodity prices have declined from record levels in 2022, but remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic averages. The outlook for 2023 and 2024 suggests continued stability in prices, with some sectors experiencing further declines. However, the report warns of potential upside and downside risks, including geopolitical tensions, adverse weather, and weak global demand, which could impact the forecast.