2022-12-03-IMF-工资价格螺旋_历史证据是什么_（英）_29页_1mb

Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence? (IMF Working Paper WP/22/221)
This study analyzes historical wage-price spiral episodes across 38 advanced economies from the 1960s to 2021, defining a spiral as at least three out of four consecutive quarters with accelerating consumer prices and nominal wages. Key findings include:

1. Frequency and Outcomes: Most spirals (79 episodes with aggregate wages and 100 with hourly manufacturing wages) were not sustained, with inflation and wage growth stabilizing shortly after.
2. Decomposition: Using a wage Phillips curve, nominal wage growth deviations stem from inflation and labor market factors. The residual component, involving short-term shocks, tends to shrink post-episode.
3. Post-COVID Dynamics: Similar to historical events, epidemics marked by rising inflation but falling real wages were followed by wage catch-up, with nominal wages stabilizing despite inflation persistence.
4. Energy-Driven Inflation: Replacing CPI with energy prices yielded similar outcomes, though earlier 1970s episodes lacked robust data.

The paper concludes that wage-price spirals are rare and not inevitable. Current wage growth acceleration may reflect monetary adjustments rather than a definitive spiral, as history shows wages return to normal Phillips curve dynamics even after high inflation periods.