20170613-USDA-USDA_Cotton_and_Wool_Outlook_2017.06.13_15页_756kb

Summary of Economic Research Service Outlook Report: Cotton and Wool (CWS-17f)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for the U.S. and global cotton and wool markets for the 2017/18 marketing year, which runs from August 2017 to July 2018. It includes projections for production, demand, trade, and prices, as well as an analysis of global cotton stocks and the impact of domestic and international policies on market dynamics.

Global Cotton Outlook

• Global Cotton Stocks:

  • Projected to decline to 87.7 million bales for 2017/18, which is 2 percent (1.6 million bales) below the 2016/17 level.
  • This is the lowest level since 2011/12.
  • China's cotton stocks are forecast at 39.3 million bales, down from 48.4 million bales in 2016/17, representing 45 percent of global stocks, the lowest since 2011/12.
  • World stocks-to-use ratio is expected to fall to 75 percent, down from a 5-year average of 89 percent.
  • World cotton trade is projected at 36.8 million bales, the highest in 4 years.

• Global Cotton Production:

  • Expected to rise to 114.7 million bales, an 8 percent increase from the previous season.
  • This is the largest crop in 3 years.
  • India is projected to be the largest producer at 28.0 million bales, accounting for nearly 25 percent of the global production.
  • China is also expected to increase production to 24.0 million bales, the largest since 2014/15, with a 5 percent increase in area.
  • Xinjiang, a high-yielding region in China, is expected to contribute to a record national yield of 1,713 kg/hectare.
  • Pakistan is projected to increase production by 21 percent to 9.3 million bales.
  • Brazil and Australia are also expected to see modest increases in production.

U.S. Cotton Outlook

• U.S. Cotton Production:

  • Forecast at 18.5 million bales for 2017/18, 12 percent above the 2016 crop.
  • Planting conditions are favorable, with 92 percent of expected acreage planted by June 11, slightly above the 5-year average.
  • Harvested area is expected to be 11.4 million acres, with a 7 percent abandonment rate.
  • Yield is forecast at 810 pounds per harvested acre, down from 867 pounds in 2016.

• U.S. Cotton Demand:

  • Projected at 16.9 million bales for 2017/18, 500,000 bales below the May forecast.
  • U.S. exports are expected to be 12.875 million bales, 1 million bales below the 2016/17 level.
  • U.S. cotton mill use is forecast at 3.4 million bales, slightly higher than the 2016/17 estimate of 3.3 million bales.

• U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks:

  • Projected at 5.388 million bales, the highest since 2008/09.
  • The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise to 33.2 percent, the highest in 9 years.
  • The U.S. share of world trade is forecast at 37 percent, the second highest in 7 years.

International Cotton Outlook

• Global Cotton Mill Use:

  • Projected to increase to 116.5 million bales, a 2.6 percent increase from 2016/17.
  • This is the highest since 2009/10.
  • China and India are the leading spinners, with a combined consumption of 62 million bales or 53 percent of the global total.

• China's Cotton Consumption:

  • Projected at 38.0 million bales, an increase of 500,000 bales from the previous year.
  • Cotton yarn imports are expected to decline due to access to raw cotton from the national reserve.
  • In 2016/17, China imported 8.5 million bale-equivalents of cotton yarn, with Vietnam, India, and Pakistan providing 80 percent of the total.

• India's Cotton Consumption:

  • Projected to rise by 2 percent to 24.2 million bales.
  • However, it is below the record level of 24.5 million bales set in 2014/15.

• Pakistan's Cotton Consumption:

  • Projected to rise by 300,000 bales (3 percent) to 10.6 million bales as the country's crop recovers.

• Turkey's Cotton Consumption:

  • Expected to rebound to 6.55 million bales as supplies increase.

• Bangladesh and Vietnam:

  • Expected to maintain record levels of cotton mill use at 6.9 million bales and 5.9 million bales, respectively.

Cotton and Wool Prices

• World Cotton Prices:

  • Projected to decline from 83 cents per pound in 2016/17 to an estimated range of 54 to 74 cents per pound for 2017/18.
  • U.S. cotton prices show variability, with upland spot prices ranging from 74.13 to 75.75 cents per pound in May 2017.

• Wool Prices:

  • U.S. 58s wool is priced at 3.15 to 3.30 dollars per pound.
  • Australian 58s wool is priced at 4.00 to 4.01 dollars per pound.
  • U.S. 60s wool is priced at 3.30 to 3.68 dollars per pound.
  • Australian 64s wool is priced at 5.10 to 5.23 dollars per pound.

Textile Imports and Exports

• U.S. Textile Imports by Fiber:

  • Total imports are forecast at 1.423 million tons for April 2017, with cotton being the largest component at 631,170 tons.
  • Synthetic and linen are also significant, with synthetic being the largest category at 685,036 tons.

• U.S. Textile Exports by Fiber:

  • Total exports are projected at 280,093 tons for April 2017, with cotton being the largest category at 134,729 tons.
  • Synthetic and wool also show notable exports, with synthetic at 21,149 tons and wool at 1,289 tons.

Key Information

• Release Date: June 13, 2017.
• Next Release: July 14, 2017.
• Chart Gallery Update: June 15, 2017.
• Contact: Leslie Meyer (lmeyer@ers.usda.gov), Carolyn Liggon (cvliggon@ers.usda.gov).
• Subscription: ERS e-mail notification service available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribers-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx.
• Data Sources: USDA reports, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, and trade data from various sources.
• Notes: The report includes detailed tables with supply, use, trade, and price data for both U.S. and global markets. It also highlights the impact of policy changes on cotton stocks and trade flows, particularly in China.