计算机行业专题报告：交通信息化景气度如何？-240516-财通证券-31页_2mb

Analysis and Summary of Traffic Informatization Industry Report

Investment Rating

Hold (Recommended, target price maintained at 1.2x EV/Fwd Revenue), with emphasis on railway/information technology areas.

1. Railway and Track Transportation

Core Drivers

• Government Policy Push: Large-scale equipment upgrades for railways initiated post-2023, targeting replaceable locomotives by 2030. Digital transformation deeply integrated into the railway "5G+" strategy.
• Investment Growth: Railway informatization investment expected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2030, fueled by growing traffic demands and 5G-R infrastructure.

Key Technologies

• 5G-R Approval: National approval for railway 5G networks enhances real-time communication and system upgrades (2024 pilot phase).
• Intelligent Systems: AI-based monitoring, intrusion detection, and autonomous driving solutions being developed by companies like Huawei, Zhejiang University, etc.

2. Road and Waterborne Infrastructure

Policy Support

• Digital Transition Acceleration: New policies (2024) aim to upgrade ~85% busy expressways, 25% national roads, and ~70% key waterways by 2027.

Chart Highlights

• Efficiency Improvements: Post-upgrade corridors see 20% improved traffic flow & 30% faster emergency response.
• Key Players:千方科技 (千方), 通行宝, 万集科技, 金溢科技, 中远海科 listed as top providers.

3. Low-Altitude Economy

Strategic Focus

• Definition as Strategic Industry: Explicitly classified as a strategic新兴产业 in the 2024 Government Work Report.
• Market Target: By 2030, form a 10 trillion yuan market led by "short-haul + eVTOL" and drone networks.

Core Technologies

• Air Traffic Management: Large-scale deployment of ATC/Air Traffic Flow Management systems for urban drone/logistics integration.
• Leading Companies: 莱斯信息 (Leis), 四川九洲, 深城交 leading ATC system development.

4. Investment Recommendations

Top Tier

• Railway IT: 思维列控, 辉煌科技, 智洋创新, 交大思诺
• Road IT: 千方科技, 通行宝, 万集科技, 金溢科技, 中远海科
• UAS Systems: 莱斯信息, 四川九洲, 深城交

Other Focus Areas: Aircraft MRO, smart highway monitoring, real-time traffic management.

5. Downside Risks

1. Technology Lag: Unanticipated delays in AI/auto-pilot integration
2. Policy Discontinuities: Delays in rollout/financing of low-altitude aircraft integration
3. Recessionary Sensitivity: Potential slowdown due to wider economic impacts.

Supporting Notes

• Growth Momentum:

  Road investments under China's "14th Five-Year Plan roadmap" coupled with the AI-first inflection point in Chinese railways have created a multi-year structurally beneficial positioning across the value chain.

• Financial Backing:

  ~￥6.3B combined market cap between key listed players (~YTD) demonstrates sector confidence.

() Abbreviations: AI=Artificial Intelligence, FY=Financial Year, EV=Enterprise Value.*